Red Horse

Tom Kloza is the "man" when it comes to a good analysis of what is happening in the oil patch. And what he is quoted in the Fleet Owner story is no exception. Key point as always, Saudi Arabia is at the pricing throttle. And they have always been smart enough to recognize that while high prices are to their (and Opec's) benefit, they have always understood that if they get too greedy they have a bad effect on the world economy and if they slow it down too much, it hurts them. Unfortunately not all OPEC members recognize that and many have built their economies around high prices and can't tolerate a lower price. Too bad for them as the Saudis are willing to accept less to keep income steady even at a reduced rate. Also no doubt they (Saudis) are sensitive to what Iran and Putin is doing and they can keep those bad boys in check to a degree. They recognize the importance of a stable world scene. And as to our great success with shale, fracking etc, they know that the economics that make certain production say with a price close to 100 bucks a barrel a winner, once the price gets closer to 50 all of a sudden the economics don't work. Best example. in modern times crude moved from the well to the refinery basically by the two cheapest modes of transportation-pipeline and marine. Granted some moved by truck when distances were very short, but very little crude moved by rail. All of a sudden today we found crude moving by rail in unit trains. Moves such as unit trains from the Dakotas to Albany NY on the Hudson made sense. The crude is then off loaded and shipped down the Hudson by barge to Jersey and even Philly refineries. At 50bucks, think those transportation economics are going to work? The Saudis understand this and already things in the Dakotas are cooling off. Last point as to where prices will go, enjoy the prices while we can, but the really knowledgeable people are being cautious. A week or so ago I mentioned on another site, things can change very quickly if say Putin or the Iranians some how or other end up causing a problem in the Strait of Hormuz blocking tanker traffic. New ball game. Well over the weekend, I read a news story that told of the Iranians deploying some sort of high powered "drone bomb" in the vacinity of Hormuz! Bottom line we will never be out of the woods when it comes to energy IMO.

"N"Series! You are dating yourself. I will say this-many years ago, I remember we had an NT-950D "canary" (as in Ryder) for a short term rental-nice driving truck back then! But you bring up another good point with the so called "cab lift" to do serious maintenance on a PS Super Duty. As the 650/750 will have a new tilting hood assembly, and as they will be installing a V-8 in a chassis that was designed initially to accomodate an in line 6, I would have to think the ease of maintenance will be another incentive for some to spend the incremental dollars for a 650 vs. a 550. And as most 550's dealers inventory seem to be 4WD, I would bet a 650 will not sell for that much more than a 4 WD 550. While some would say "apples and orange" comparison, I would say a properly loaded 650 will hold its own vs a 4 WD 550 in snow/off road conditions..

KSC, Well I hear you load and clear about Daimler's strong position in class 7 and 8. And while I have no personal experience I have heard of others who share 84Superdog's sentiments. The M2's are not without issues. I would say if there is a company that is truly focused on trucks, it is Daimler and I would have to imagine if there are issues they will address them As for the specifics of the rumor that GM will partner with Navistar to get back into medium trucks via a JV at Escobedo to take up Ford's slot, I understand your lack of confidence in GM's management ability at the highest level but I gather you have no specific info as to the truth of this move? And regarding Ford, I don't think Ford intends at this point to challenge Navistar or Daimler for leadership in class 6/7-at least with their announced powertrain options-which is basically Henry Ford's philosophy from Model T days..."any color as long as it's black". But I think their initial efforts will be to grab the low hanging fruit with a cost effective power train consisting of the V-10 gas and 6.7 Power Stroke and 6 speed in house auto trans. I think it is safe to say that the 6.7 has done much to dispel the bad rep earned by the prior 6.0/6.4 since its introduction in 2012 (?). Furthermore, I would also bet that we will see a lot of buyers who were formerly using class 5 equipment, bump up into 650/750 as for probably not a lot more money, they end up with more truck without the breaking into CDL territory. In fact, there is a dealer in my area who stocks 750's which are normally 33,000 lb trucks, plated for 26,000 lbs. My suspicion is these are heavier trucks with a "paper" GVW that avoids the CDL issue. Do I think it is a mistake to drop the Cummins/Allison combo? Yes I do, but I would have to believe Ford knows what they are doing at THIS POINT in their return to US production of these trucks. Or should I say as a stockholder,I sure as hell hope they have a plan

Heard a story that with the end of the Ford-Navistar JV BlueDiamond Trucks, Navistar is about to partner with GM to build class 4-7 trucks at the Escobedo plant. This would be similar to the Ford deal with Navistar chassis and GM cab structures. For sure the GMC/Chevy dealers can't be happy watching Ram and Ford fight over class 4 and 5 sales. Plus, can Navistar afford to lose ANY incremental production volume. Now if I were a Navistar dealer, would I want more competition for my Terrastar class 4-5 trucks? I don't think so. How about it KSC-any opinions?

Tim M Just to get your interest in the "off season" attached shots of Rick Lazaro's new Wirtgen Milling machine. Powered by a C-18 Cat.

Hah-was in Sears today picking up some stuff for my "kids" (not the "grandkids"-I'm probably a true senior citizen on this site). In any case, I refuse to buy China crap- so I'm looking for USA labels. Found a nice Craftsman nut driver set, A Swenson Speed Square, and a Craftsman 10" pipe wrench-painted Rigid orange- all made in USA. so there still is some Craftsman stuff US sourced. And I do believe most of the Kobalt sockets, wrenchs etc are China. Channel Lock USA! Crescent-mostly China-they are now part of Apex Group Irwin-China--They own Vise Grip-sucks when you look at a Vise Grip and it has the MIC on it.

Thx Matt- kept drawing a blank

Thx Matt- I was just about to send you an e-mail as I was drawing a blank and thought you guys had posted something about it before. What was the name of that garage? Hughes Bros comes to mind but I'm drawing a blank. They were Mobil for years and then in the end flew the Citgo flag. I do believe they had all the big wreck business on the upper end of 84. They had at least one R model too. No Mega buck Petes/KW's with hydraulic booms-just know how and cables!

Willington Conn. And I do believe that truck is still in Conn.

Hope you are right as it makes a lot of sense when you look at it from a "low hanging fruit" perspective. That is if Ford has the confidence in the 6.7 Power Stroke to get into GVW's above 33,000 lbs. Or if they don't will they do something with the 7.3 or 9L Duratorque or once again turn to cummins for the 8.3.

thx

By the looks of it, this thing has been under cover-no fade or rust streaks and the rubber looks great- same guy who has the Reo??

They announce the deal Dec 11 and say they will be in business at end of the month! That says they had this in the works for months or it is MUCH easier to do business in Russia than in the US. With the apparent eagerness of these guys to expand their business, I can't believe we are not seeing signs of them one way or another getting involved with Ford's renewed presence in class 7 (and maybe baby 8) when Avon Lake comes on line in few months. Not with those high cab versions but with the one that most closely resembles the old Ford Cargo. KSC- I know the no compete has expired but was there anything in the Daimler deal that specifically blocked Ford from ever bringing the Cargo back to the US?

Hah-for sure-wonder how his renewal rates will be.

?? you talking about missing ROP? Last job had a lot of low OH obstructions.

Okay-now on the other end of the spectrum, borrowed this Cat 300.9D micro to do a little stone wall work-also figured I would get rid of a few stumps-makes a good "hatchet " to chop routes and then the 4790 with the grapple pulls them out like carrots!

This is the one I'm talking about

Big 10-4 on that. I'm hopeful that the "One Ford" campaign will let them draw on that world wide engineering and perhaps bring back the LCF Cargo here when they start building the new 650/750 at the Avon Lake Ohio plant this spring. Can't say that there is that much of a market for that big Euro style cab over that they build in Brazil and Turkey, but there is a market for the LCF version

What Euro truck isn't ugly-or should I say what big Euro truck looks like it was built to work? And for that matter, I guess we shouldn't throw stones whjen we live in a glass house. Like a F'liner Cascadia is good looking? or the Navistar ProStar with the 1948 K series retro grill? Now IMO, both of those are "fugly". But I'm prejudiced based on:

Thx for the clarification- so at one time there were three plants cranking out Rangers. Which I think was one of the top 10 selling vehicles on an annual basis in US. I think Ford's position that the market has been taken up by small inexpensive vehicles is a self fulfilling prophecy on Ford's part. I say "what do you expect when you let the product die on the vine?" Had they continued to upgrade, offer new power trains like the Ecoboost engines it would have continued to have decent numbers-IMO

I don't think so. There are two Louisville plants Louisville Assembly Plant (LAP) and Kentucky Truck Plant (KTP). KTP was the heavy truck plant and now builds 250-550. LAP was building Explorers but they are all now built in Chicago along with Taurus. I think LAP builds Escapes now. I don't think Rangers were ever built at LAP and for sure they were never built at KTP. Back when Rangers were selling in big numbers I think the two plants building them were Twin cities and Edison NJ-both now history. I say this with 99% certainty-but as my wife will tell you-been wrong before

I'm sure they always want more business-but at what price? Two big issues to be addressed: 1. As Teamster Grrl mentions-we are told the big issue is T-6 would only erode sales of 150-so if you buy that, what is the point. 2. The other issue as I have mentioned, is the plant economics question. As T-6/Everest are BOF vehicles, what plant would be a good fit considering existing vehicles produced at that location. As I've said, Avon Lake looks like it is the only plant left that will be building BOF other than KC and Dearborn which are cranking out aluminum 150's- and KTP which supposedly will also be producing aluminum BOF Super Duties when the next generation comes out.

Agree with KSC's editorial comments on Ford's dumb ass position on this issue.-as well as all the other posters. No unibody "car/truck"for me. And B61VT brings up good points on the economics that certainly apply to a lot of people. biut I'm afraid the Ford boys are driven totally by the manufacturing economics- and I guess from a stockholder's perspective tough to argue. Bottom line, do they have ANY option that would let them build off a current US built BOF vehicle? I don't think so. Then again, I look at the engineering/development costs that are done with respect to the Ranger/Everest platform. Assuming these two are not that far off from meeting US crash standards, what would it take to tweak them to comply? But back to the US manufacturing issue, I think with 150 now based on aluminum and its unique manufacturing process, they don't have a plant that does conventional BOF construction with "old fashioned" steel/welded construction. Transit is unibody. The Super duty line, built at the huge Kentucky Truck Plant (originally built as the largest HD truck plant in the world in'69 when thje Louisville came out) is BOF but if you listen/read all the buzz on those, they will soon be aluminum. Maybe the Ohio plant that still builds the last of the E series Cut aways and will soon be building the 2016 F650/750 could be the plant that builds this BOF small truck? A complicated problem for Ford. We shall see just how successful the new GM's are. In the meantime, I'm taking good care of my '04 Ranger FX-4 that has been in the family since new. And as I've posted many times on the BON website, I can't see throwing a couple of calcium loaded "44s" in the back of a unibody tin can built on a Transit Connect platform

Any clue as to the premium for the P-H system over a conventional power train? If you use say 3.50 per gallon, that is $15,000 per year savings. As for operating cost, I would imagine you also have lower brake costs with these things. Any clue as to durability of this system? Is Parker Hannifin last one in the hydraulic hybrid business? I think Ford had done a lot of research on this mode but have not heard of any activity of late. Makes sense to me but I guess the cost/weight penalty of the "accumulator tank" or whatever you call it is a big negative.