kscarbel2

Bob, I "know" that I posted news on the I-Shift Dual-Clutch, but I can't located the link. To date, sales remain very low, and to my knowledge are only in Western Europe where Volvo can monitor them closely. Here's some info: . . ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volvo I-Shift Dual Clutch: Smooth Operator Heavy Duty Trucking / December 2014 Volvo Truck claims to be first in the world to launch a dual-clutch automated mechanical transmission in heavy trucks, and to this reporter’s knowledge, that is correct. Deliveries of the [12-speed] I-Shift Dual Clutch started in Europe this fall. There's no official word yet if they will be available in the U.S., but it's seen as likely by many in the industry. As a concept, dual clutch transmissions appeared in the 1980s in auto rallying and racing. Some European cars now offer them, and Eaton recently introduced a dual-clutch transmission for medium-duty trucks. The current I-Shift automated manual, with a single clutch, goes back to 2002 in Europe and 2005 in the U.S. About 95% of Volvo's sales of heavy trucks in Europe last year included the I-Shift, and in the U.S. it's now in 74% of Volvo heavy trucks. The two Volvo I-Shifts are similar mechanically, but to the driver they operate much differently. I-Shift Dual Clutch can basically be described as two parallel connected gearboxes in one housing. One gearbox contains the even gears and the other has the uneven gears. When one gear is active, the next gear is pre-selected in the second unit. When shifting changes from the first gearbox, the other is poked in. This provides ratio changing without any disruption in power or speed. The I-Shift Dual Clutch has two input shafts, one located inside the other, and the two clutches. This allows two gears to be engaged simultaneously. Which of the gears that is activated is determined by which clutch is engaged. Volvo’s I-Shift Dual Clutch weighs 222 pounds more and is 4.72 inches longer than the single-clutch I-Shift. Demanding driving Volvo showed the I-Shift Dual Clutch to the European press corps recently in south-coastal Spain. We drove almost 300 kilometers (about 180 miles) using 12 vehicles. All were typical European 4x2 tractors with three-axle semi-trailers, loaded to 40 metric tons or 90,000 pounds GCW. Some were equipped with Dual Clutch I-Shifts, while others had the regular single-clutch I-Shift. The reason for choosing this part of Europe was the demanding, long and steep ascents and descents of up to 7 and 8 percent. One 65-kilometer (40-mile) leg started at sea level, rising to 916 meters (2,005 feet). I became especially fond of a FH13-liter with 500-hp engine and 2500 Nm (1844 lb-ft) of torque equipped with the Dual Clutch. It took off almost like a bullet and changed gears fast and without any interruptions. One could only hear, not feel, most gear changes. Like a regular I-Shift, the new transmission skips some gears whenever possible, and makes only one small pause, during a range shift between 6th and 7th gear. Gear changes were made at low rpms, but revs did not drop during gear shifting. Low engine speed gave an extra comfortable setting in an already quiet cab. Volvo says fuel consumption does not exceed a "normal" I-Shift. In the long and steep downhills, the transmission shifted down more quickly and more often than otherwise, due to the activated engine brake and retarder. This is controlled by the cruise control, where the desired maximum speed is set. The Volvo cruise control switches are on the left side on the steering wheel, and prompting slower or faster set speeds is done with a superb thumb switch. It is amazing how quickly one can lose previous frames of reference. After time in a truck with an I-Shift Dual Clutch, an otherwise distinguished and popular long-haul FH 13 with a 460-hp engine and a single-clutch I-Shift felt far weaker with its slower gear changes. .

Oh, I do too. No doubt about it. But if we do a recount, and any decent system should be easily capable of a recount in a short period of time, then there's added validation of the original result.........or, in fact an issue is revealed that should indeed be brought to light.

I haven't read anyone (of stature) saying Trump is destroying free markets. We all know NAFTA was a scam, crafted by big business to enhance their profitability. I hope Trump terminates our participation in NAFTA, or completely rewrites it. I don't care about lawless Mexico.......I'm on the U.S. team.

The way I see it Paul, if the original count was correct, and there's nothing to hide, who could possibly argue with counting one more time to make double sure (reconfirm)? It never hurts to count twice, especially when it's important and/or expensive.

You're right, you certainly can't learn what's going on by just skimming headlines. You have to actually read the article. That one wasn't too long, just 18 sentences. "My" news? No. I didn't write it. The folks at the Pulitzer Prize-winning Guardian wrote it. I didn't notice any bias. Just laying out the facts/situation.

David, based on the news (what we're told), of the 2,100 Carrier jobs that were being shifted to Mexico, 1,100 are still heading south of the border. A genuine success story, a true demonstration of skill, would have been all 2,100 jobs remaining in the US. China was a significant currency manipulator. But global (western) economist all claim that is no longer the case. Every country, including the US, pushes buttons and pulls levers to manipulate their currency to a degree. Our “Quantitative Easing” scheme, for example, kept the value of the dollar lower than it might otherwise be. It's going to be fun watching Trump jerk on everyone's chain ("rocking the boat"). Hopefully, some good will come of it. That said, Trump is flip-flopping on his campaign promises faster than a PEZ dispenser can shoot out candy.

And Paul, we couldn't have done it without the help of Australia and New Zealand. Some of the best troops in the Pacific theater of war. Thank you.

Shinzo Abe to visit Pearl Harbor in symbol of reconciliation The Financial Times / December 5, 2016 Prime minister’s visit is first by Japanese leader since attack 75 years ago Shinzo Abe will make a historic visit to Pearl Harbor later this month where he will remember the dead of World War Two alongside outgoing US president Barack Obama. The visit will make Mr Abe the first sitting Japanese prime minister to visit Pearl Harbor since his country’s surprise attack on the Hawaiian port began the Pacific war 75 years ago. Following Mr Obama’s visit to the atomic bombing site of Hiroshima earlier this year, it will break down one of the last remaining taboos between the US and Japan, symbolising the reconciliation between former enemies who have become close allies. The visit will also provide a powerful closing scene for Mr Obama’s foreign policy before the inauguration of Donald Trump, highlighting the value of patient diplomacy, and letting him take one last step in his “pivot to Asia”. Mr Abe will visit Hawaii on December 26 and 27 and hold a summit with Mr Obama. “On this occasion, along with President Obama, I will visit Pearl Harbor,” Mr Abe told reporters at his official residence in Tokyo. “The purpose is to comfort the spirits of the dead.” He said the visit would show their determination never to repeat the calamity of war. “It will be a chance to show the world the significance of our effort to look to the future and build an even stronger US-Japan alliance,” said Mr Abe. “This final summit is the culmination of all we have done.” A statement from the White House echoed Mr Abe’s comments, saying: “The two leaders’ visit will showcase the power of reconciliation that has turned former adversaries into the closest of allies, united by common interests and shared values.” The visit marks another step in Mr Abe’s effort to reconcile his own conservative nationalism — which has occasionally veered into historical revisionism — with his desire to strengthen the US-Japan alliance and settle the ghosts of Japan’s history. Last year, he referred to Pearl Harbor in a well-received speech to the US Congress, and gave a statement on the 70th anniversary of the war’s end without offending Japan’s neighbours. Mr Abe has landed on a formula where he often talks of his grief and sadness at the events of the war without offering specific apologies. Although Mr Abe declined to pledge a Pearl Harbor trip when Mr Obama went to Hiroshima in May, a reciprocal visit was widely anticipated and has been discussed with US diplomats in the past. The prime minister said Mr Obama’s words at Hiroshima had “entered the hearts of many Japanese people”. Akie Abe, the prime minister’s wife, visited Pearl Harbor in August where she prayed at laid flowers at the USS Arizona memorial. That was widely regarded as a test run for a prime ministerial visit. Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor using carrier-born aircraft sunk four US battleships and damaged four others. Coming without a declaration of war, it prompted US president Franklin D Roosevelt to declare December 7, 1941, “a date which will live in infamy”. But America’s three aircraft carriers were out at sea during the attack and survived, so Japan gained little strategic advantage, leading to its ultimate defeat three-and-a-half years later.

. .

The “Infamy Speech” (aka. Pearl Harbor Speech) delivered by United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt to a Joint Session of Congress on December 8, 1941, one day after the Empire of Japan's attack on the US naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii and the Japanese declaration of war on the United States and the British Empire. Within an hour of the speech, Congress passed a formal declaration of war against Japan and officially brought the U.S. into World War II. Yesterday, Dec. 7, 1941 - a date which will live in infamy - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan. The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with the government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific. Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleagues delivered to the Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. While this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or armed attack. It will be recorded that the distance of Hawaii from Japan makes it obvious that the attack was deliberately planned many days or even weeks ago. During the intervening time, the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace. The attack yesterday on the Hawaiian islands has caused severe damage to American naval and military forces. Very many American lives have been lost. In addition, American ships have been reported torpedoed on the high seas between San Francisco and Honolulu. Yesterday, the Japanese government also launched an attack against Malaya. Last night, Japanese forces attacked Hong Kong. Last night, Japanese forces attacked Guam. Last night, Japanese forces attacked the Philippine Islands. Last night, the Japanese attacked Wake Island. This morning, the Japanese attacked Midway Island. Japan has, therefore, undertaken a surprise offensive extending throughout the Pacific area. The facts of yesterday speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation. As commander in chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense. Always will we remember the character of the onslaught against us. No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory. I believe I interpret the will of the Congress and of the people when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost, but will make very certain that this form of treachery shall never endanger us again. Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory and our interests are in grave danger. With confidence in our armed forces - with the unbounding determination of our people - we will gain the inevitable triumph - so help us God. I ask that the Congress declare that since the unprovoked and dastardly attack by Japan on Sunday, Dec. 7, a state of war has existed between the United States and the Japanese empire. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt December 8, 1941 .

Davenport, Iowa-based, American family-owned Sears Seating (optional in Macks), or Germany's Grammer (GRA-MAG) that come in Kenworth, Peterbilt and most European trucks. http://www.searsseating.com/product-category/truck-seats/ http://www.gramag.com/products.html

HGVUK / December 5, 2016 Goodyear is introducing a High Load version to its fuel-frugal FUELMAX T range of trailer tyres with EU tyre label ‘A’-grading in fuel efficiency. The new Goodyear FUELMAX T “HL” (High Load) 385/65R22.5 tyre is engineered for axle loads of up to 10 tonnes, to meet the increasing demand for such tyres as more and more European countries adopt higher vehicle weights. Almost 80% of European countries have now extended regulations to permit axle weights in excess of the so far standard 40 tonnes on five-axle articulated vehicles. There are now 32 countries in the region that allow total weights in excess of 44 tonnes even. The new tyre has been developed to meet fleets operators’ demands for high load trailer tyres capable of enabling total weights in excess of 40 tonnes. The new High Load version of the 385/65R22.5 FUELMAX T trailer tyre features FUELMAX Technology, which gives the tyre the most economical ‘A’ EU tyre label grade in fuel consumption. The tyre’s launch follows the successful introduction of the High Load version of the KMAX T trailer tyre, which is optimized to deliver high mileage. The carcass of the FUELMAX T HL 385/65R22.5 is engineered for axle loads up to 10 tonnes giving it a load/speed index of 164K/158L. This not only provides the higher load capacity but also high levels of robustness. A further advantage of the new FUELMAX T HL size is that it carries the M+S designation, fulfilling truck winter tyre requirements across Europe. The introduction of the FUELMAX T HL means that Goodyear now offers in total three FUELMAX T trailer tyres boasting the coveted ‘A’ label grade in fuel efficiency. These comprise the new Goodyear FUELMAX T HL 385/65R22.5, the FUELMAX T 385/55R22.5 and the FUELMAX T 435/50R19.5. The new Goodyear FUELMAX T HL 385/65R22.5 with ‘A’ label grade in fuel efficiency, ‘C’ label grade in wet grip, 69 dB and one wave for external noise is available now. Related reading - http://www.goodyear.eu/uk_en/truck/tires/fuelmax-t/

Buried in the article??? I think not. The Guardian used the same black and white print in noting the seven Democratic electors as the one Republican elector. They assume you are going to read the entire article.

Volvo Trucks Press Release / December 5, 2016 .

US election: broken machines could throw Michigan recount into chaos The Guardian / November 5, 2016 Broken polling machines may have put vote counts in question in more than half of Detroit’s precincts and nearly one-third of surrounding Wayne County, possibly throwing the Michigan recount into chaos. If the discrepancies can’t be solved by recounting every paper ballot in question by hand, a recount in those precincts simply won’t happen. Donald Trump’s slim margin over Hillary Clinton means any chance that the state might flip on a recount likely hinges on Wayne County, where she won by a landslide. Clinton lost by 10,704 votes in Michigan; Wayne’s population of 1,759,335 makes it the likeliest candidate to contain errors bigger than that margin. Eighty-seven of Wayne County’s decade-old voting machines broke on election day, according to Detroit’s elections director, Daniel Baxter. Baxter told the Detroit News, which first reported the story, that ballot scanners often jammed when polling place workers were trying to operate them. Every time a jammed ballot was removed and reinserted, he suspects the machine may have re-counted it. Preliminary investigation by election officials in Wayne County found that 610 of the area’s 1,680 precincts could not reconcile the number of votes cast according to the machines with the number of ballots issued according to the electoral rolls. Detroit contains 662 of Wayne’s precincts; in 392 of those, the number of votes didn’t match up. Baxter said he was confident a recount would match the ballots issued to the paper records, which are sealed and stored under guard. “I don’t think it’s going to be 100%,” he said, “but it never is with a recount.” If hand-tallied ballots can’t resolve all the mismatches, the votes will stand in the counties where the errors remain. State law rejects a recount in places where the two figures don’t match up: a precinct is ineligible to be recounted if the “number of ballots to be recounted and the number of ballots issued on election day as shown on the poll list or the computer printout do not match and the difference is not explained to the satisfaction of the board of canvassers,” the law says. The recount was triggered by Green party candidate Jill Stein in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. On Monday, Stein asked a federal court to intervene in Pennsylvania after state courts demanded a million-dollar bond before it would proceed. Computer scientists have been sounding the alarm about shoddily made, insecure and incompatible voting machines for several years. The only way to find out whether technical problems or even malicious hacking have contributed large errors to the electoral tally is to audit the vote, wrote the University of Michigan’s J Alex Halderman in an affidavit supporting Stein’s call for a recount. Now that a recount is under way, Michigan officials are indeed finding major technical problems. Jeremy J Epstein, a researcher with SRI, successfully campaigned in 2015 to have Virginia’s WinVote machines decertified when he discovered that the factory-set network passwords for WinVote voting machines were often “abcde” and “admin”.

First Republican 'faithless elector' announces intent to vote against Trump The Guardian / December 5, 2016 A Republican presidential elector has become the first to announce that he intends to defect from Donald Trump when he casts his vote as part of the electoral college, vowing to try and block the president-elect from reaching the White House. Writing in the New York Times, Christopher Suprun has declared that he will break ranks with his fellow Republican electors in Texas and cast his vote for a GOP candidate whom he deems to be more fit for highest office. Suprun argues that under the electoral college system he has the constitutional duty to vote according to his conscience, not just according to party loyalty – and his conscience tells him that Trump is unfit for the presidency. Citing the Federalist Papers, the historic documents that laid out the principles behind the electoral college system, Surprun, who as a firefighter was one of the first responders to the Pentagon on 9/11, says that each elector must decide whether “candidates are qualified, not engaged in demagogy, and independent from foreign influence … Mr Trump urged violence against protesters at his rallies during the campaign. He speaks of retribution against his critics.” He adds: “I owe no debt to a party. I owe a debt to my children to leave them a nation they can trust.” Suprun’s declared defection from Trump marks the first time that a Republican has broken ranks in this election cycle to become what is known as a “faithless elector”. Up to now only Democratic electors within states won by Hillary Clinton have expressed the intention to vote against party affiliation as a form of protest against Trump’s imminent ascendancy to the White House. Until Suprun’s defection, seven of the 538 electors across the country had indicated that they intended to become faithless electors by breaking ranks with party affiliation. However, they were all Democrats within states won by Clinton. Under the electoral system laid down by the founding fathers, US presidents are not chosen directly by the popular vote of the American people. Instead, they are elected indirectly by 538 electors who selected by the political parties within each state. In contemporary America, it is widely assumed that the electors will simply vote according to their party affiliation in tune with which candidate won their state. Thus in Texas, which has been assigned 38 of the 538 electoral college votes, it was assumed that all 38 electors would vote for Trump who beat Clinton in the state by 52% to 43%. However, one of the Texan electors, Art Sisneros, has already resigned from the state’s electoral college delegation on grounds that Trump does not satisfy his religious and moral principles. Now Suprun says that he will go further – he will show up on 19 December when the electoral college assembles in each state and actually cast his ballot against Trump, by writing in an alternative Republican candidate of the likes of John Kasich, the governor of Ohio. “I believe electors should unify behind a Republican alternative, an honorable and qualified man or woman such as Gov John Kasich of Ohio,” he writes. The idea that several of the 538 electors might take it into their own hands to attempt to sway the outcome of an election that involved more than 127 million voters has proven to be quite contentious. Some have taken the view that it is in itself a deeply retrograde and undemocratic step; others have lauded it as exposing the implicit undemocratic nature of the electoral college itself that imposes an indirect barrier between presidential candidate and people. Either way, few expect that this year’s rebellion of electors will have any definitive impact on the outcome of the race. Though it looks like being historically large in number, it is most unlikely to tip the balance of electors from Trump to Clinton, who currently hold 306 to 232 electoral votes respectively.

Can Nikola truly transform the trucking industry? Sean Kilcarr, Fleet Owner / December 5, 2016 So Nikola Motors Co. unveiled its Nikola One prototype Class 8 highway sleeper tractor last week at its “world headquarters” in Salt Lake City, Utah – a truck that runs on electricity generated by a hydrogen-powered fuel cell. The company claims the Nikola One’s range is between 800 to 1,200 miles on a single fill up and, with its fuel cell linked to a 320 kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack, the truck can crank out 2,000 hp and 2,000 ft.-lbs. or torque – enough to handle heavy-haul operations, which is a trucking niche Trevor Milton, Nikola’s president and CEO, is including in his marketing plans. The sales pitch for the Nikola One is pretty straightforward; indeed, refreshingly so, if the company and its partners (Ryder System being playing perhaps the most critical role handling sales, service, and warranty coverage for the vehicle) can make good on their claims. Milton said during the event that he expects to “sell” the Nikola One tractor via an “all-inclusive and integrated lease” costing anywhere from $5,000 to $7,000 per month. And by “all-inclusive” Milton means “all-inclusive”: Not only does it cover the vehicle, but all of its hydrogen fuel as well (“one million miles worth,” he explained), along with maintenance support, warranty coverage, tires, wiper blades, everything – even truck washes. Milton plans to provide hydrogen fuel and amenities to Nikola One owners through a yet-to-built network of 364 refueling “sites” modeled on the Maverik convenience store chain – making refueling a “destination” for Nikola One operators, rather than a necessary evil. Another twist Milton is planning for the Nikola One: Incorporating a freight matching service, Nikola Shipments, as part of the trucks base package of services. Truck drivers will be able to access that service via the 21-in. computer screen built into the dashboard – a computer screen that technicians can also use as a diagnostic tool as well. “Look at it this way: an iPhone would not be an iPhone of you couldn’t listen to your music, send text messages, take photographs, surf the web, and do hundreds other things with it,” Milton explained. “That’s what we are trying to do with the Nikola One. It won’t happen all at once, but essentially we’re going to try and integrate everything a driver needs into this one vehicle.” Of course, there are safety and environmental angles to the Nikola One being played as well. The air disc brakes on the Nikola One will be connected to a “regenerative braking” system to provide more stopping power – stopping power further enhanced through linkage with automatic emergency braking systems (AEB) such as Bendix’s Wingman Fusion and Meritor’s OnGuard Active product. The Nikola One’s battery pack, electric motors and fuel cells will all be positioned at or below its frame rails – providing more stability and a lower center of gravity to reduce the chances of a rollover. Then there are the environmental factors. For starters, fuel cells only emit water vapor, so no expensive and heavy exhaust aftertreatment systems will be needed. Milton also expects the Nikola One to last at least two million miles due to its independent suspension and electrical powertrain, with the first million miles in operation for “new owners” and the second million for those who favor buying used trucks. Even the lithium-ion battery pack can be re-sold, Milton noted: “sliced up” for use in electric back up generating systems for residential homes. “The goal here is to reuse and recycle as much as possible from the truck,” he said. Yet will trucking companies pay $5,000 to $7,000 a month for a hydrogen-powered torpedo-looking truck? And will truck drivers be willing to pilot such rigs? Sandeep Kar, global vice president for mobility at Frost & Sullivan, for one, believes total cost of ownership or “TCO” factors may play into the Nikola One’s favor. “The North American trucking industry is grappling to find ways to address the TCO issue [with] fuel, lease, and repair and maintenance costs are the key components to be tackled,” he explained in a recent report. “They contribute to over half of a truck’s TCO.” With Nikola claiming that its Nikola One prototype can offer twice the power and two to four times more fuel efficiency than an average Class 8 diesel truck, plus all the fuel and maintenance costs rolled into the lease price for good measure, Frost & Sullivan estimates that will provide savings of $21,127 per year on a lease purchase deal versus a traditional Class 8 diesel truck. And even though the Nikola One won’t start full production until 2002, the company said that it’s received over 8,000 reservations for the vehicle with deposits of $1,500 each. Milton claimed during the unveiling that amounts to nearly $4 billion worth of pre-orders – money that Nikola will no doubt use to help fund the development of its hydrogen refueling network. Will that be enough to sway truckers to start switching to hydrogen- powered electric big rigs? We’re going to find out as clock tracking the time to full production of the Nikola One is now ticking. Slide Show - http://fleetowner.com/running-green/digging-nikola-one-details#slide-0-field_images-206851

Class 8 market dip in '17, with upbeat outlook farther out Fleet Owner / December 5, 2016 With many speculating what the incoming Trump Administration will mean for trucking, those are really more 2018 considerations, say truck industry analysts. For 2018 though, analysts expect just over 200,000 Class 8 trucks will be built for the North American market. "We've just got too many trucks and not enough freight," one analyst said. This year should close out at about 228,000 Class 8 trucks built before a continued downward trajectory into 2017. But several factors are likely to help the market pick back up starting in 2018, when ACT expects that 243,000 Class 8 trucks will be built. And things could be on the road to much better after that, should a number of elements fall into place. "If everything goes according to the script that I have written, the conditions should be in place for a very nice Class 8 market in 2019 and 2020," he said. New administration Possible beneficial economic moves from the Trump Administration like pushing for tax cuts or infrastructure investments would come no sooner than 2017, and the fruits of any changes wouldn't be seen until 2018 and going forward. "We've got at least two years to find out what total Republican dominance does to policy, just as we did in 2009 and 2010 when the Democrats had the same opportunity," he explained, noting Republican control of the presidency and Congress. That control "should mean free policy rein, and I do recall the Barack Obama quote from 2009 that 'elections have consequences,'" he added. With the Trump Administration, some things to watch will be stances on trade, foreign policy and immigration, and then there is the 3 a.m. tweet thing, which I think makes us all a little bit nervous. The North American Class 8 market was considerably weaker during the first 10 months of 2016 vs. the same time the prior year. The United States, which accounts for 81% of the market, saw a year-over-year Class 8 decline in that time of 47%. Canada, which is 9% of the market, saw a 26% decline in Class 8. But one bright spot for Class 8 was Mexico, which represents about 8% of the North American market. Mexico has seen growth of 25% for the first 10 months of the year compared with the same 2015 period. Ultimately, it's still a 25,000-unit market, so what happens there only ripples so far. Still, if there's a question regarding the future Trump Administration's policies, Mexico is a key consideration. The thinking generally is that the new administration will ease up on regulations, which should be a boon for businesses: Whether it's labor, environmental or safety, those had been increasing headwinds for business and are likely to be mitigated. Even if the new administration ultimately lightens the regulatory burden, don’t expect GHG Phase II requirements to evaporate. "I think the paybacks are so good on aerodynamics and parasitic drag that even if the Greenhouse Gas Phase II rules get rolled back, the vast majority of that mandate is going to happen because of the bang for the buck for fuel economy relative to cost," he said. "I think the vast majority of the GHG Phase II proposal is almost 'baked in the cake,' regardless of what the Trump Administration does." More positive 2018 The 2018 forecast for Class 8 is more favorable now that Donald Trump has been elected president. A theoretical President Hillary Clinton would've faced with a Republican-led House of Representatives and Senate, particularly with funding issues. "Before the election, we were thinking of something like 225,000-230,000 [total Class 8 North American market units built for 2018] might've been a better place" than our prediction of 243,000, he said. "That was kind of from the realization of having Hillary Clinton as president with the continuation of a Republican-led House of Representatives, which I don't think was ever in doubt. "Then all of a sudden, if we try to push through a $500 billion infrastructure package, the House would say, 'Okay, but you have to cut $500 billion worth of spending.' So the aggregate level of spending was not going to change all that much." President Trump should face smoother going in terms of working with Congress, but what will come of Republican legislative efforts is yet to be seen. If the rosier 2018 predictions are to come about, there will be indicators by about the third quarter of 2017. "As we look back through history, I want to say that every up-cycle that we've seen in the marketplace has started in the fourth quarter," he said. "So if conditions aren't sufficiently good by the third quarter of 2017, you don't get bigger orders in the fourth quarter of 2017, which doesn't start production in time. "So that's that 15,000-20,000-unit delta that we were contemplating." A bubble popped For Class 8, the present reality comes from a cyclical downturn that came on fairly dramatically. "From the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, we went from the top of a cycle to a rapidly deteriorating market heading into 2016, and it continued to deteriorate through most of the first half of 2016," he said. That deterioration has stopped or at least slowed, he added, "but in short, in the current market, we've just got too many trucks and not enough freight." How many too many trucks is that, exactly? Analyst’s fleet utilization model suggested there was about a 5% capacity shortfall at the end of 2014; today, the model shows the market is about 7% overcapacity. "From our model's perspective, that's about 105,000 more tractors than are currently needed in the marketplace," he said. Precipitating the market declines for freight were dips in machinery and capital goods, where "you've got six-to-eight touches by a truck on a relative dollar basis." "Freight started going wrong when the commodity bubble popped in the second half of 2014," he said. "All of a sudden, all the commodity extractors — whether it was the oil guys, coal guys, steel guys, aluminum guys or farmers — they're all like, 'We're not making any money; we don't want any [new] machines.'" Keeping in mind analyst’s approximately 100,000 excess truck estimate, productivity gains are also part of the Class 8 story. In 2013, truck tonnage in North America began a continuous climb while truckloads stayed relatively the same. "Coming out of the recession, we've seen a lot of truck tonnage growth without a lot of loads growth," he said. "Where is it? Increased density? Increased utilization? A little bit of modal share? A little bit of online retail shift? "Were we operating under the same conditions as we were during the last cycle, we would actually need about 10% more tractors — about 150,000 more tractors — than are currently on the road today to haul the same amount of freight," he continued. "So you can see the problem in a nutshell: especially in a slow-growth economy, high productivity growth leads to weak freight outcomes." Points to note Meanwhile, the U.S. has seen far less decline in the Class 8 vocational sector. "If you look at the U.S. numbers, we're not so bad in the vocational market," he said. "One of the reasons we don't have a 'hair on fire' bad forecast for 2017 is that the quarter of the market that is the vocational piece is holding up reasonably well." Class 8 inventories are still swollen, but truck OEMs have adjusted production rates down accordingly. We've worked a lot of inventory off, but there's still a lot of inventory to work off. In terms of sales-to-production balance, trailers held up strong for about a year after the Class 8 tractor market began its decline, but they're now headed for their own equilibrium adjustment. "We saw trailer backlogs drop below 100,000 units in October, which was the first drop below 100,000 since early 2014," he noted. "We still haven't adjusted production relative to the size of the backlog," he argued. "So we think there's certainly some production cuts coming up there." Some signs on the economic horizon are looking up. In terms of strengths of lead indicators like commodity trends, stock market prices and consumer confidence, "over the last couple of months, it's generally been a better tempo on economic reports," he said. Look for "generally slower growth" in the U.S. economy, with a pick-up likelier by around the mid-term elections. The economic recovery is at a tepid 2.1% growth in GDP and 2.1% growth in manufacturing, but there are encouraging signs regarding the latter. "We're seeing some nice improvement on a worldwide basis in manufacturing," he said. "That's very good to see." He noted that Germany, the United Kingdom and India are seeing above trend growth in manufacturing, while China has moved to trend-type growth. "In our argument of what's wrong with freight in the United States, it really gets back to commodity prices," he emphasized. "How you fix commodity prices is you fix aggregate demand for commodities globally. "In the last few months, things are getting better globally," he said. Continued pressure on used One area that's likely not to improve in the near future for Class 8 is the used market. And one thing to keep an eye on in this regard is contract freight rates vs. spot rates. "I pay a lot of attention to the spread between contract and spot rates," he noted. "Contract rates have performed reasonably well compared to spot rates for the past 24 months," he added, while "the guys that operate in the spot market have just absolutely gotten killed over the last 22 months." Trucking companies in the contract market tend to be new truck buyers, he explained, while those in the spot rate market tend to be used truck buyers. Monitoring used truck sales and extracting a small subset of 400,000-500,000-mi. trucks for a look at used sale performance, he noted that "through '14 and much of '15, there was a premium of $10,000 to maybe $12,000 above residual value or book value on equipment. "A lot of fleets were actually booking profits on their used truck trades, and it encouraged them to do more used truck trades," he pointed out. "That flipped toward the end of 2015, and you can see that [used truck] average valuation in four of the last seven months has been below our estimated residual value. That becomes a real issue." With trucks' residual values low, "several OEM groups" are holding back "some fairly large" used inventory stockpiles. "So there's a chunk of inventory that hasn't even been introduced into the marketplace." All things considered, a rebound of used equipment prices doesn't look likely, and that will continue to put pressure on new sales. "For the near-term, there's probably more downward pressure on late-model used equipment values than upward," he noted. ELDs' 'meaningful takeout' A meaningful change in trucking is on the way with electronic logging devices, or ELDs, ACT believes. The group speculates that the coming ELD mandate is likely to squeeze perhaps significant capacity out of the market. Midsize truckload carriers, which make up about 10% of the market, will lose about 5% of their numbers, or about 4,000 trucks. Small truckload carriers, which make up about 20% of the market, will lose a more substantial portion of their total at 10%, which amounts to 16,000 trucks. Owner-operators will be most affected. Those make up 30% of the market, and they could lose 15% of their 240,000 total, or about 36,000 trucks. All accounted for, it’s estimated that the ELD fallout will amount to 56,000 trucks, which is 3.7% of total tract fleet capacity or 7.0% of for-hire fleet capacity. "Basically, the big guys are running legal. It's when you get to the smaller end of the market and for-hire guys" where you'll find some paper log cheating, he said. Taking some midsize and small carriers out of the mix and accounting for them running excess miles, again, the total ELD "takeout" of Class 8 trucks will be the equivalent of 56,000 units. "This is a pretty meaningful takeout," he said. Shippers and insurers eventually could become a factor in fleets having ELDs, he contended. "Now that it becomes a law, do shippers and insurers start to care about whether the brokered truckers they're hiring are compliant?" he pointed out. "At some point, this probably starts to matter." Furthermore, "we do think that there are some post-mandate business failures that almost have to happen as guys just can't adjust to the new paradigm," he argued. "So this could be, especially for the big fleets, the gift that keeps on giving for a while." Coming 'very nice' market Analysts believe that the current buying/ replacement rates for tractors are on a cyclical schedule that will pick up as 2017 progresses and continue climbing from 2018 into much of 2020. And around 2018, other market forces — including legislative activity the Trump Administration is likely to undertake — could make for some bright years for Class 8 in North America before the cycle falls off naturally in 2021. "We do think there's a trade cycle. All of the trucks that were bought in 2012, '13, '14 and '15, as we look out to 2020, our [tractor] trade cycle model begins to ramp up pretty well," he said. "So if trucker profitability is in place then, there's likely to be a decent trade cycle as we look out to the end of the decade." Pair that with the impact of ELDs, and the stage is set. "If the electronic logging device mandate delivers a fairly large capacity takeout at the same time as the Trump Administration delivers an infrastructure project, maybe a corporate tax giveback, and there's good freight volumes and more machinery being sold, yes, I think there's a very good argument for a nice run-up in trucker profitability in 2018 and 2019," he told listeners. "These guys will have a bunch of old trucks to replace that they purchased in 2014 and 2015," he noted. "If everything goes according to the script that I have written, the conditions should be in place for a very nice Class 8 market in 2019 and 2020."

November Class 8 Truck Orders Indicate Stabilized Market Heavy Duty Trucking / December 5, 2016 There was a significant and expected increase in Class 8 truck order activity during the month of November, according to preliminary numbers from FTR. Net orders are projected to hit 19,300 units for the month, representing a 41% increase in order activity compared to October. Backlogs are also expected to increase for the first time in 10 months. “Class 8 orders came in right as expected in November. It is good news that the market has stabilized and is following seasonal trends,” said Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles at FTR. “Backlogs should increase in November and December as production dips, however, this order level should allow production to bounce back some in Q1.” Class 8 order activity for the past 12 months annualizes to 191,000 units, according to FTR. “The downturn in the Class 8 market was in response to weak manufacturing and lackluster freight growth in 2016,” said Ake. “It appears business inventories have finally dropped and manufacturing is regaining strength. This trend is important for the Class 8 market to regain footing early in 2017.”

The all-new 2018 Buick Regal, design in Germany by Opel. http://www.caranddriver.com/news/the-2018-buick-regal-sedan-and-wagon-are-going-to-be-hot-news

Bloomberg / December 5, 2016 Dozens of Volkswagen officials in Germany have hired U.S. criminal defense lawyers as the Justice Department ramps up meetings with managers to gather evidence that may lead to charges against executives. U.S. authorities have traveled to Germany to arrange interviews with managers and seek cooperation in their probe of the automaker’s efforts to subvert anti-pollution rules. With some interviews yet to take place, it makes it less likely that prosecutors will be able to reach a resolution with the company by the close of the Obama administration as some officials had hoped. That activity, and the Justice Department’s efforts to interview executives on foreign soil, shows the U.S. is keeping pressure on the automaker after it admitted last year that it had rigged its diesel engines to lower their emissions during testing. The U.S. has already helped broker a civil settlement that will cost VW over $16 billion in fines and penalties. The Justice Department, characterizing the diesel cheating as a 10-year conspiracy to deceive environmental officials, has said it will pursue criminal charges against not only the company but also individuals. The two-pronged approach would make good on the department’s 2015 call for prosecutors to focus on the individuals behind corporate misdeeds, a policy drafted after criticism that it had entered into multibillion-dollar corporate settlements while failing to prosecute the people responsible. The case could also serve as a capstone to the environmental-enforcement cases pursued under the Obama administration, which includes the $25 billion in criminal fines and civil penalties paid by BP Plc for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The U.S. investigators have urged some of the VW employees to come to the U.S., where they can be interviewed away from German prosecutors, who are building their own cases against company officials. U.S. prosecutors hope VW employees would testify against those above them in the company. In September, U.S. prosecutors secured a guilty plea and cooperation from a former VW software engineer who reported to German executives. The U.S., should it choose to pursue charges against executives in Germany, could face challenges. The U.S. can charge individuals even if German authorities issue their own indictments. But getting executives to stand trial in the U.S. could be difficult. Germany’s constitution doesn’t allow citizens to be extradited outside the European Union. The Justice Department is exploring its options to get executives to the U.S. In one scenario, the U.S. could put pressure on the company as settlement discussions advance by filing charges against individual executives, issuing arrest warrants and sending enforcement requests through Interpol via the so-called red-notice system. At the least, that could restrict executives from travel outside Germany for fear of being detained and flown to the U.S. Investigators have already used this technique in investigations of global banks for rigging benchmark interest rates.

Automotive News / November 5, 2016 Dodge wants to get back into NASCAR, Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne said on Sunday. Marchionne was at Daytona International Speedway as part of the Ferrari Challenge World Finals, which wrapped up Sunday. FCA owns Ferrari, and Marchionne is CEO of that brand. When asked if he wanted to see Dodge back in NASCAR, he didn't hesitate. "Yes I'd love to," he said. "I talked to Jim France (executive vice-president of NASCAR) about this just last night." Dodge officially left NASCAR in 2012. The decision came in 2009. Penske Racing was the last team campaigning Dodge before when it moved to Ford in 2012. "I'm the one that made the decision to pull Dodge out," Marchionne said. "I am the guilty party at the table. In 2009 we came out of bankruptcy; we couldn't (justify) racing in NASCAR when I was trying to pay bills and make payroll." "I think we're in a different place now," Marchionne said. At Homestead prior to the final race of the season, NASCAR CEO Brian France confirmed that the sanctioning body was in discussions to bring in another manufacturer. "But we're not in a position to make that announcement," France said at the time. Whether those earlier comments by France are related to Sunday's is a matter on speculation. However, one fact is certain: The man who elected to withdraw Dodge from NASCAR is now ready to return to American stock car auto racing. "We need to find the right way to come back in," Marchionne said. "I've agreed with both Jim and Lesa (France Kennedy, International Speedway Corporation CEO and NASCAR board member) to come back to the issue in short order," he added. NASCAR spokesman David Higdon added, "There is increasing excitement around NASCAR. We continue to have on-going dialogue with a number of auto manufacturers about their interest in joining our sport. We look forward to exploration with them on this topic.”

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The Wall Street Journal / December 5, 2016 November upturn signals truck manufacturing decline has bottomed out, but outlook remains tepid Orders for heavy-duty trucks rose in November from the same month in 2015, the first such increase in nearly two years, in a sign that trucking companies see the freight market bottoming out. Industry research firm FTR Transportation Intelligence said in a preliminary report that fleet owners ordered 19,300 vehicles in November, up 18% from a year earlier and 41% from the previous month. Other analysts estimated orders were up 16% year-over-year last month. The bump follows 20 consecutive months of decline in orders for Class 8 trucks, the big rigs that carry goods on long-haul routes, as fleet owners cut back plans to expand or replace vehicles amid weak shipping demand. However, orders remain below-normal for this time of year, usually the peak period for buying new heavy-duty trucks. In October—a time when fleets typically set plans for the coming year—order cancellations reached the highest rate in more than 20 years. There are “too many trucks chasing too little freight,” said one analyst. “We’ve had no freight growth to speak of in the last six quarters.” Analysts predict Class 8 truck production will total roughly 202,000 vehicles in 2017, a decline of about 12% from this year. Equipment makers have laid off thousands of workers and reduced output from their North American factories over the past year as orders have declined. Daimler AG, which sells trucks in the U.S. under the Freightliner and Western Star brands, and Paccar Inc.’s Kenworth and Peterbilt, are the country’s biggest Class 8 vehicle manufacturers. Between the weak market and holiday shutdowns at truck factories, “we’re expecting November production to be weak and the December production to be pretty bad,” said FTR’s Don Ake. The backlog of heavy trucks ordered but not yet built is expected to increase in those months. Analysts with Stifel Inc. said they expect a 13% decline in truck orders next year. The November upturn “should be viewed as in line with relatively low expectations, though perhaps encouraging that demand has not deteriorated any further,” the analysts said.