kscarbel2

The head of VW’s truck group, Andreas Renschler, absolutely wants to participate in the US market. He’s made that point abundantly clear. I can tell you that re-entering the US market has always been on the table at Scania, long before Volkswagen took control. Scania can and has built conventional cab trucks.......for decades (we call them T-Series). There’s no question that Scania can engineer an 80,000lb (36,287kg) GVW North American market heavy truck (Although I’d rather see America adopt higher GVWs, at least 90,000lb (40,823kg), and efficient B-trains on applicable roadways). When Renschler came into the picture, MAN was already active in North America, marine engines aside, allowing Navistar to produce MAN D20 and D26 engines under a 2004 license agreement. VW holds MAN close, because it’s German, and because it doesn’t enjoy high profitability for the same reasons that the namesake Volkswagen car brand barely makes a profit – the German Works Council (union) and Germany's social welfare policies including its co-determination act of 1976 (Mitbestimmungsgesetz) which requires that half the seats on a company's board be held by Works Council (union) members (companies with over 2,000 employees). VW, however, gives Scania a great deal of autonomy because the company is the most profitable and innovative truckmaker in the world Scania North America (http://www.scania.com/us/en/home) has been extremely successful, and the 2015 truck engine supply agreement* with Oshkosh makes it more so. * http://www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=37987

The White House Office of the Press Secretary November 10, 2016 Remarks by President Obama and President-elect Trump After Meeting Oval Office 12:36 P.M. EST PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, I just had the opportunity to have an excellent conversation with President-elect Trump. It was wide-ranging. We talked about some of the organizational issues in setting up the White House. We talked about foreign policy. We talked about domestic policy. And as I said last night, my number-one priority in the coming two months is to try to facilitate a transition that ensures our President-elect is successful. And I have been very encouraged by the, I think, interest in President-elect Trump's wanting to work with my team around many of the issues that this great country faces. And I believe that it is important for all of us, regardless of party and regardless of political preferences, to now come together, work together, to deal with the many challenges that we face. And in the meantime, Michelle has had a chance to greet the incoming First Lady. And we had an excellent conversation with her as well, and we want to make sure that they feel welcome as they prepare to make this transition. Most of all, I want to emphasize to you, Mr. President-elect, that we now are going to want to do everything we can to help you succeed -- because if you succeed, then the country succeeds. Please. PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much, President Obama. This was a meeting that was going to last for maybe 10 or 15 minutes, and we were just going to get to know each other. We had never met each other. I have great respect. The meeting lasted for almost an hour and a half. And it could have -- as far as I'm concerned, it could have gone on for a lot longer. We really -- we discussed a lot of different situations, some wonderful and some difficulties. I very much look forward to dealing with the President in the future, including counsel. He explained some of the difficulties, some of the high-flying assets and some of the really great things that have been achieved. So, Mr. President, it was a great honor being with you, and I look forward to being with you many, many more times in the future. END 12:40 P.M. EDT .

On your truck's line sheet, in the engine section, what is the 236GB part number under Oil Filter? If you don't have the line sheet, check the dimensions on a 236GB28B (236GB28, 236GB28A).

When I went to the voting booth, I did not have 17 Republican choices. THE PEOPLE of each party selected the 1 candidate they felt best represented what their party needed in order to win The people? Those "people" don't know me or my interests. It is impossible for them to choose for me. I have a dim view of the party system. It is a part of the past still clinging on, struggling to justify its continued existence. Our President and members of congress are.......employees of the American people. That's all they need to remember. I'd rather they not be affiliated with a "party", lest their priorities become......confused.

Have the people spoken? The "people" were only given two choices. The "people", including you and I, were not involved in the process of deciding that Clinton and Trump would be the two choices. Two choices really isn't.......much at all. And since we don't have a direct vote system like other countries, the people aren't actually choosing. They're sending their vote, allegedly, to the electoral college, but the EL doesn't have to heed it. Remember Gore versus GW Bush. There really wasn't a choice. Neither was qualified to be anything more than a state governor. If the system can't offer the people two qualified choices, there's a serious problem. I humbly suggest the people should be offered a minimum of six qualified choices, chosen by the people via preliminary direct vote nominations.

Related reading on International and Atkinson: http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/30957-those-magnificent-aussie-international-transtar-4670s/#comment-182918 http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/36017-the-legendary-acco-–-designed-and-built-by-australians/#comment-248847 http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/31125-those-spanish-dodges-that-strolled-across-europe/#comment-182636

Prime Mover Magazine / November 8, 2016 Sales of new cab-chassis and prime movers during October showed an increase of 204 units over same month in 2015, according to new data compiled by the Truck Industry Council (TIC). The latest TIC results brings the year-to-date total to 22,241 trucks, 906 units or 4.2 per cent more than for the first 10 months of 2015. In the heavy-duty category, data showed a very slight improvement during October with 871 sales, nine units more than for the same month in 2015. The increase takes the year to date result to 7,817, which is still a negative 3.3 per cent or 264 heavy-duty trucks compared with this time last year. October sales were 35 more than for the previous month of September. The four big heavy-duty manufacturer groups also reflected the range of results of the overall market. Year-to-date figures showed that the Paccar Group (Kenworth and DAF) was down 105 units (minus 5.4 per cent on the first 10 months of 2015), while the Volvo Group (Volvo, Mack and UD Trucks) was up 23 trucks (1.1 per cent) and Daimler (which incorporates Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner and Fuso) sales were up 104 units (10.2 per cent). Meanwhile, the Penske Group (Western Star, MAN and Dennis Eagle) recorded total sales of 481 trucks across its three brands, down 208 units or 30.2 per cent from its 2015 statistics.

Owner/Driver / November 10, 2016 Rebuilt from the ground up, this '80s International has been put to work as a tipper and water cart I swear that there are some trucks that were deliberately engineered to be fallen out of. The best example I can think of is the International T-Line cab. If you’d poking around the ‘burbs in an ACCO and the boss then chucked you the keys to a T-Line, chances are that the first thing you did when you got to the other end of the journey was plummet to the ground scrabbling for grab handles and steps that weren’t there. I’ve also been told that the Mack Ultraliner was another serial offender when it came to driver’s plummeting from the cab and landing on their arses in front of an audience. I found that there are a couple of ways you can react after an undignified exit from the truck cab. You can spring back to your feet like an Olympic gymnast and pretend it didn’t happen. Or you can take a bow and ask for a round of applause. Or you can just limp away crying softly. And while I used to regularly fall out of a T-Line back in the day. I never had the opportunity to fall out of the T-Line’s flash highway sibling, the Atkinson. It’s amazing what you can find kicking around the back blocks of Oz sometimes. We have a habit of not letting our old bangers die. Where other countries hock their trade-ins off to developing markets, we tend to rebuild rather than replace. Even new trucks tend to have a second and third life within the same company. As a result there are some old jiggers still around working that were pretty flash back in the day. Hero renewed So I recently came across this old 1983 Atkinson 4870, it’s just been rebuilt from the ground up and put back to work. So I got in touch with the owners, father and son Brendan and Nick McKnight, and asked if it would be okay if I came around and fell out of their truck. Nick is a diesel mechanic by trade and he came by the old girl about 18 months ago. Like any old banger that rolled out the International plant in Dandenong in the 70’s and 80’s the cab was pretty well…er… ventilated. Rust has never been kind to these old boxy cabs. So Nick pulled the old girl to bits and started to rebuild this former highway hero. Starting with the 44,000lb Rockwells in the rear before completely rebuilding the 15-speed reduction ‘box and the jewel in the crown; a 14-litre BC3 Cummins. The cab was stripped back, repaired and painted. The interior was retrimmed, though Nick looks a little pained when he talks about that. Purist will probably be horrified that the grille has been redone in hammer tone. But according to Nick the bright work was, "Pretty knackered." A PTO and a tipper body were added and the 4870 was now ready to go to work as a water cart and occasional tipper. The old Atki was looking pretty schmick when I rolled up the driveway of the McKnight’s Central Victorian property. "The whole thing was a bit of a challenge," says Nick, "There was lots of rust in the cab." But, as a mechanic by trade the running gear wasn’t as much of an adventure. "We’ve got it running pretty sweet, we played with the cam timing a little to make her bark." I climb into the cab…carefully. That familiar old T-Line style dash greets me. It’s not hard to see the remnants of a highway heritage in here. A space in the overhead console where the CB used to be, the old school fan on the dash. The air con has been installed but hasn’t been connected yet. Behind the seats is a pretty sizeable bunk for the times, and this what really sets it apart from the T-Line Inter. Where the international had a padded shelf that you could crawl onto (and plenty did), the 4870 has a proper sleep cab with shelves and lights. Like so many old mechanical engines, the BC3 Cummins has a lot of character. Just the exhaust note at idle makes the truck sound like it’s raring to go, like it’s waiting to be unleashed. Memory lane I hit the maxi’s off and grab a gear, the rebuilt ‘box is pretty tight, and idle away. Clearly no one at International ever intended for anyone to use the clutch pedal once mobile. So I stir the ‘box without it. Funnily enough I’d just gotten my head around driving a 15 overdrive and now I had to reset back to a straight 15 reduction. But once we got hauling all of those 400 horses were a sound to behold. As we were empty the old steel Hendrickson arse-end kicked and bucked a bit but I was too busy listening to 14 litres of Cummins singing in the breeze. And even though there was no need for it, I just had to hit the jakes when it came time to slow down at a country intersection. For anyone who grew up around trucks that roar still echoes down the decades. Of course I then had to remember to flick it back off again. This ain’t no electronic engine. That familiar feeling of clanging down the down the road sitting a big old Cummins while hunched over the wheel starts to come back to me. The wheel is never still on this rough bush blacktop. We roll back down the driveway and into the shed. I swing out of the cab, miss a step and stumble. Luckily Nick is on the other side of the truck and doesn’t see. Awesome, this means I can stroll away nonchalantly as though nothing happened. It would have been a big truck in it’s day. An open road hauler with luxurious accommodation. And that big wrap around dash makes you feel as if you’re at the wheel of a major piece of machinery, it feels like a cockpit rather than just a place to sit. The International brand is on its way back to Oz but the 4870 was the last truck in the world to ever wear the Atkinson brand. We won’t be falling out of the like of them again, in fact these days we have further to fall. Watch the Atkinson in action here. .

Cummins Australia announces new X15 Power Torque Magazine / November 2016 Cummins devotees have a new choice for their preferred engine options in 2017 as Cummins Australia has announced its replacement for the ISXe5, Australia’s largest selling engine in the heavy duty truck segment, The Cummins X15 Euro 5 will be offered by the North American manufacturers that currently install the ISXe5 as an evolutionary product for Kenworth in the T-Series, the Argosy and Coronado from Freightliner and as the alternative engine to Detroit in Western Star products. “The X15 uses the same hardware and emissions reduction technology – SCR – as the existing ISXe5, and incorporates all the product improvements since the ISXe5 release in 2012, including power cylinder, cylinder head and turbocharger upgrades,” says Andrew Penca, managing director of Cummins South Pacific. “The X15 features ADEPT technology – a suite of advanced electronic features capable of delivering fuel economy gains through improved powertrain integration. “Another feature to be released with the X15 is Connected Diagnostics, a telematics solution that delivers instant and expert diagnosis of engine faults to the customer.” ADEPT – Advanced Dynamic Efficient Powertrain Technology – is for use with Eaton’s 18-speed automated UltraShift Plus transmission and has been under field test in Australia since early 2016. It utilises load, speed and grade-sensing technology to initiate adjustments to engine power, torque and transmission gear selection to take advantage of vehicle momentum for better fuel economy. Also included is the Cummins Intebrake which provides engine braking of 600hp at 2100rpm. The first ADEPT package includes two features: SmartCoast and SmartTorque. SmartCoast operates when the vehicle is on a moderate downhill grade by disengaging the front box of the transmission and returning the engine to idle to reduce drag, maintain momentum, and ultimately improve fuel economy. Once the engine commands the transmission to be put back in gear, the appropriate gear is engaged. SmartTorque uses torque management intelligence to help eliminate unnecessary downshifts and keep the engine operating in the most fuel efficient ‘sweet spot’. Torque is varied across all gears depending on torque requirement. For Australian operating conditions, the torque varies up to 1850 lb ft or 2050 lb ft depending on the horsepower and peak torque rating of the engine. Further features such as predictive cruise control will be added to ADEPT in the future. Cummins Connected Diagnostics will also be available with the release of the X15 in 2017. This telematics system automatically processes fault code data, sending instant notifications from Cummins to the vehicle fleet manager detailing the probable root cause and providing recommended actions. The expert advice, delivered by email, app or web portal, enables the fleet manager to make an informed decision about continuing truck operation and when to schedule a service visit for the most convenient time, thus minimising downtime. Additional connected solutions to be added in the near future include Over-the-Air (OTA) engine programming and customisation. This will allow an engine to be reprogrammed or updated with the latest calibration without having to take the truck to a service bay. “The X15 builds on the success of the ISXe5 of which more than 6000 have gone into service in Australia and New Zealand since 2013,” says Mike Fowler, director of on-highway business for Cummins South Pacific. “During this time our 15-litre Euro 5 product has established class-leading reliability, fuel economy and performance. “Our product development is no longer driven by emissions, but is instead inspired by customer needs and application requirements. The X15 is a sign of what is to come from Cummins in terms of significant efficiency gains for our customers.” The X15 will be offered with the same ratings as the ISXe5, from 450 to 600 hp with peak torque spanning 1650 to 2050 lb ft.

Trade Trucks AU / November 8, 2016 Engine manufacturer Cummins South Pacific has announced it will release its X15 Euro 5 next generation heavy-duty engine for the truck market in 2017. Replacing the 15-litre ISXe5, the new engine will be offered with the same horsepower ratings as the previous generation, from 450 to 600hp, and generate peak torque spanning 1,650 to 2,050 lb-ft. However, the X15 will add Advanced Dynamic Efficient Powertrain Technology (ADEPT) and Connected Diagnosis to the hardware and SCR technology found in the ISXe5. "The X15 uses the same hardware and emissions reduction technology – SCR – as the existing ISXe5," Cummins South Pacific managing director Andrew Penca says, "and incorporates all the product improvements since the ISXe5 release in 2012, including power cylinder, cylinder head and turbocharger upgrades." The addition of the ADEPT offering, which has been trialled in Australian conditions since early this year and works with Eaton’s 18-speed automated UltraShift Plus transmission, will improve fuel economy as it "utilises load, speed and grade-sensing technology to initiate adjustments to engine power, torque and transmission gear selection to take advantage of vehicle momentum," Cummins says. These improvements will be provided through two new features in the first ADEPT package: SmartCoast and SmartTorque. The former disengages the front box of the transmission, returning the engine to idle, while a truck is travelling a moderate downhill grade to reduce drag, maintain momentum and reduce fuel consumption. The gears are reengaged once the engine commands the transmission to be put back into action. SmartTorque on the other hand is about focusing on a fuel-efficient ‘sweet spot’. Using torque management intelligence to help remove unnecessary downshifts, Cummins says it keeps the engine running at its most efficient. The other major addition is the introduction of Cummins Connected Diagnosis, a telematics system that provides detailed information and expert advice to the operator should a fault occur. The automated process sends notifications from Cummins, via email, an app or the web portal, detailing probable root causes and the next steps an operator should take. Cummins says this offering will be bolstered "in the near future" with the addition of Over-the-Air (OTA) engine programming and customisation. The technology will allow engines to be reprogramed or updated without a visit to a service bay. Those waiting for predictive cruise control will not have to wait much longer either, as Cummins says it will join the ADEPT offering in the future. While it is slated for next year, industry sources believe the new X15 will make its first public appearance before then, arriving with an exciting new Kenworth model set for release in the next few months and scheduled to begin production at Kenworth’s Victorian Bayswater plant in February.

Trump plans to spend $1 trillion on roads, bridges, and other infrastructure Yahoo Finance / October 27, 2016 Road and bridge builders might turn out to be the biggest winners of this year’s presidential election. Both candidates called for big new investments in infrastructure. Trump’s plan involves spending $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s economic backbone. Hillary Clinton’s plan called for $275 billion in direct government spending over five years, plus another $225 billion in private investment. Trump’s new plan, drafted by economic advisors Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, would finance up to $1 trillion in spending over a decade. Trump’s plan would rely heavily on private funding, with the government encouraging investment through a tax credit that would raise the return to investors and lower the cost of borrowing to states and municipalities that would oversee the projects. Tax credits would cost the government some money, but taxes collected from the workers and companies participating in such projects would offset the costs, according to Navarro and Ross. “If there’s ever a great time to do it, it’s got to be now,” said Ross, a billionaire private-equity investor. “With interest rates so low, this has got to be the best time from a break-even point of view, from a societal point of view.” The tax credit in Trump’s plan would apply only to projects with a dedicated source of revenue that attract private investment. Examples of such project include toll roads, airports or utilities financed at least in part by fees paid by users. The Trump campaign claims it doesn’t favor toll roads. “It’s a state-by-state decision,” says Navarro. And roads tend to be easier for states to finance through traditional means than complex or multi-state projects. User fees on such projects guarantee cash flow back to investors that doesn’t normally exist on “free” resources such as parks or interstate highways. Wider adoption of facilities covered by user fees would amount, to some extent, to the privatization of America’s infrastructure. Private sector funding That’s controversial, since many citizens aren’t happy with the idea of for-profit entities funding roads, airports, tunnels, and mass-transit systems meant to help the general public get around. But the traditional way of paying for infrastructure, through tax revenue, has left thousands of needed repairs unfunded. The American Society of Civil Engineers, for instance, says the nation’s infrastructure needs $3.6 trillion worth of work by 2020. The federal government only spends about $100 billion a year on infrastructure, with states and cities spending another $320 billion or so. That suggests a $2 trillion gap during the next four years. Fans of private funding for infrastructure argue that projects would be selected with less political interference (and fewer “bridges to nowhere”), along with a stronger focus on projects likely to return the best bang for the buck. Private-sector interests might also be able to control costs better, since there’d be more profit if they do. Governments would still have an oversight role, in setting maximum tolls or user fees, for instance, and making sure private owners or investor groups didn’t skimp on maintenance. The Trump plan would provide funding for riskier and costlier projects that government might have difficulty funding on its own these days, especially with many state budgets hamstrung by the soaring cost of pensions and retiree healthcare. These would be big, complex projects such as a new tunnel beneath the Hudson River from New York to New Jersey, high-speed rail in California or the Federal Aviation Administration’s next-generation air-traffic-control system. More routine projects, such as ongoing funding for existing highway or utility systems, don’t need radical new sources of money.

Will trucking find the going easier under Trump? Sean Kilcarr, Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 You’d be forgiven for thinking that the unprecedented and history-making U.S. presidential victory by Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton – along with the retention of Congressional control of both the Senate and House of Representatives by the Republican Party – should make things easier on trucking from a regulatory perspective. Maybe. Then again, maybe not. Recall that when George W. Bush won the U.S. presidential race back in 2000, many in trucking thought then-impending and still-contentious exhaust emission control rules for heavy trucks developed under President Bill Clinton’s administration might get delayed, if not changed to a dramatic degree. Instead, they went into effect right on schedule in 2002 and wrapped up in 2010. Efforts to improve trucking productivity by raising truck weight limits – again, another contentious move – also went nowhere. And continued to go nowhere during President Obama’s two terms. Based on those experiences, then, those in the industry hoping to change or delay any of the regulations currently aimed at the industry, such as the upcoming electronic logging device (ELD) mandate, may be disappointed. [As an aside, the recent court loss by the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Assn. against the imposition of the ELD mandate pretty much seals the deal where that rule is concerned.] That isn’t to say that a more truck-friendly regulatory approach isn’t possible. But it’s important to remember that the “regulatory approach” is really defined by what an incoming presidential administration puts at the top of its priority list – and let’s face it; trucking is rarely at the top of either political party’s priority list. I recently talked about this with David Kelly, a longtime automotive industry expert who served as acting administrator for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) under President George W. Bush and now president of consulting firm Storm King Strategies. “In a perfect world, it would take nine months to get a rulemaking done from beginning to end,” he explained. “The reality is that it takes one to two years and if the rule is controversial in any way, it’ll take a lot longer than two years.” Another critical factor is how a proposed rule or change to a current rule fits into the policy priorities of a Presidential administration – and that “priority fit” is often what can turn a nine to 12 month rulemaking process into a two to four year effort, Kelly explained. For instance, public transit became a much bigger focus during President Obama’s two terms compared to previous administrations – leading to major policy efforts by the Department of Transportation (DOT) in that arena Priorities, too, are often dictated by where the money is, he added. For example, in transportation as a whole, rulemakings by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) will get more “process attention” from the White House simply because they represent the largest portions of transportation spending. What spin will President-elect Trump and the Republican Party put on transportation issues? That remains to be seen, though the Republican Party platform issued back in July doesn’t bode well for passenger rail. And it’s a long way to the inauguration next January. So no doubt a lot more transportation policy and priority twists are ahead for us.

On the surface, the IC Bus Plant in Tulsa, Okla. may look like any other modern-day factory. But there’s a rich and proud history behind the yellow school buses that roll out on this assembly line every day. At one time owned by the Douglas Aircraft Company, the plant during World War 2 produced Consolidated B-24 “Liberator” bombers. Those birds are long gone, and the site that once manufactured tools of war now assembles instruments of education. Each day up to 75 buses roll out of the plant, which last summer produced its 100,000th bus since opening in 2001. Fifteen million children ride an IC Bus every day of the school week. That’s a lot of wide-eyed wonder leaving the zoo, a lot of anxious athletes delivered to state championships. With freight this precious, safe travel will always be foremost on the makers’ minds. . . .

Associated Press / November 9, 2016 IC BUS, the school bus manufacturing subsidiary of Navistar International, has announced plans to 75 hourly employees at its plant in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The company released a statement saying, "While these decisions are never easy, this cycle is normal for our business, and our hope is to call those employees back in the early spring when school bus production picks back up." Currently, the plant employees 1,294 people.

They use the Volvo VHD vocational chassis. Volvo should call a spade a spade and stop rebadging these trucks as Mack product. In the U.S. and Australian markets, many customers can't imagine a “Mack” truck having a Volvo engine, transmission, chassis, you name it. If they had wanted a Volvo............they would have bought a Volvo.

Why were the election polls so wrong? How Donald Trump defied predictions The Guardian / November 9, 2016 Republican Donald Trump will become the next US president. Many will be wondering who, among the estimated 129 million voters in the 2016 election, Trump has to thank for his victory. Possibly, not most of them. Current projections suggest that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton might narrowly claim a larger share of the popular vote. But the distribution of votes in the electoral college still means that Trump finished the night with 276 of the 270 college votes needed to win – and, once final counts come in from states that still haven’t officially been called, that count will probably jump to 306. As I have written, part of the reason Trump’s win is being described as a “stunning upset” is because most opinion polling was inaccurate. And yet, the only information we have right now to make sense of Trump’s victory is yet more polling data – this time from exit polls. Those exit polls point to one clear, deep divide in voting behavior – race. White voters chose Trump, non-white voters chose Clinton. This appears to be different from previous polling data, where the difference between candidates’ national popularity was so narrow that relatively small errors could affect the overall accuracy of results. The gap in Trump support between white voters and non-white voters is so large that even if exit polls were inaccurate, that difference probably still stands. Perhaps that’s not surprising for a candidate who was endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan. What’s more surprising though is that exit polling suggests Trump was able to slightly increase his vote share among black, Hispanic and Asian voters compared with Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012. There are other demographic cleavages in US voting, but they don’t appear quite as dramatic as the racial one. Exit polls suggest that, as expected, more women voted for Clinton while more men voted for Donald Trump. Much like the UK’s Brexit result, younger voters (a demographic which typically has lower turnout rates) seemed to choose the losing candidate. Only 37% of voters aged 18-29 voted for Trump, compared with 53% of those aged 65 and over. Those numbers come from Edison Research, which spoke to 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places across the country on election day. Exit polling data on income points to another surprising result. The poorest voters, those with an income of $49,000 or less, seemed to choose Clinton over Trump –albeit by a much smaller margin than in 2012. For months, Trump was projected to win big among this group. All this doesn’t necessarily mean that the numbers were wrong. These exit polls don’t reflect how people, or demographics, really work. American voters are not poor or black or female or college educated. In reality, people fit into multiple different groups at once. Two facts are simultaneously possible – that the poorest voters chose Clinton and that the poorest white voters chose Trump. In data analysis, this process of looking at two different variables at once means looking at the “crosstabs”. The exit polling data does offer us one such crosstab – race and educational status. Those numbers suggest that Trump has one very clear group supporting him: white voters who don’t have a college degree. The numbers on race and education point to such a clear cleavage that even if they are slightly inaccurate, the overall conclusion still likely holds true. That group might also offer some clues as to why polls were so badly off. Analysts have found that the states where Republican support was underestimated correlate with the states with a large non-college-educated white share of the population. But it might be an overstatement to say that this group secured Trump’s victory. To understand that, we would need a detailed breakdown of votes by state, which we don’t yet have. There are other factors here, such as the millions of votes which went to third-party candidates, and whether Democratic turnout overall was down (it appears that it was). Again, these numbers have their limitations – and they can be dangerous. Similar polling data led the Clinton campaign to feel quietly confident of a victory in Wisconsin and Michigan, and to therefore air few advertisements in those states. Both ended up voting for President-elect Donald Trump. .

Fed faces Trump glare ahead of policy shake-up The Financial Times / November 9, 2016 President-elect’s economic advisers say US central bank has created a ‘false economy’ The election of Donald Trump as US president will unleash a policy shift away from monetary policy towards fiscal measures in the coming months, some of his advisers told the Financial Times. In particular, some members of his economic advisory team are convinced that central banks such as the US Federal Reserve have exhausted their use of super-loose monetary policy. Instead, in the coming months they hope to announce a wave of measures such as infrastructure spending, tax reform and deregulation to boost growth — and combat years of economic stagnation. Mr Trump’s campaign rhetoric has fuelled concerns about the future of Janet Yellen (age 70), chair of the Federal Reserve, who faced unprecedented levels of criticism by the candidate during the campaign. Hours after the Republican stunned global markets by defeating Hillary Clinton, Judy Shelton, a member of Mr Trump’s advisory team, told the Financial Times that the US central bank had created a “false economy”. She reiterated that Mr Trump wanted to see someone at the helm of the Fed whose thinking was more in line with his. Thomas Barrack, chief of Colony Capital and an adviser to Mr Trump, sought to quell fears in the markets that Mr Trump would act precipitously on Fed policy, stressing that a President Trump would be a very different man than “candidate Trump”. Nevertheless, Mr Barrack stressed that it was time for a shift in the policy mix, echoing a widely held view among Trump’s advisers. “There needs to be change — we need something other than central bank intervention to deliver growth.” Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund manager and Trump adviser, said: “I definitely think we will have a shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy — most of the central banking community is calling out for other legs of the stool.” Mr Trump’s victory will cast fresh uncertainty over Fed policy after the central bank signalled that a rate rise looms in December. Some economists argued on Wednesday that the Fed may well press ahead with a quarter-point move in the absence of a violent market reaction to the election. Mrs Yellen’s term is not due to expire until 2018, but the election of a man who has been so critical of her during the campaign has triggered speculation about her future. Mr Trump has claimed Mrs Yellen was acting at the behest of the Obama administration in leaving rates low, but he cannot fire the Fed chair outright and she is not expected to leave before the end of her term. However, Mr Trump may have the opportunity to inject a more hawkish bent to policy by moving to fill two vacant positions on the Fed board in 2017. Ms Shelton suggested the criticism of the Fed was part of a wider policy rethink across the western world, pointing to the UK prime minister’s recent statement that ultra-low rates had bad side effects in punishing savers. Ms Shelton said: “Theresa May faulted the bad sides of monetary policy and said if you want an economy that works for everyone you have to re-examine the way monetary policy is conducted and imposed and implemented through the economy, and whether or not it treats people in differential ways — and whether that is in keeping with your constitutional values.” She did not offer specifics on the kinds of reforms Mr Trump would seek, but Ms Shelton is an economist and co-director of the Sound Money Project which has been campaigning for a hawkish monetary policy for a long time. “He has made it a very strong point of his campaign that he thinks that the Federal Reserve’s intervention and elongated accommodative monetary policy has created a false economy,” said Ms Shelton. “People who have worked all their lives have been penalised by these low rates.” Mr Barrack said Mr Trump would move “very slowly” when it came to central bank changes and allow policymakers to be independent in their decision-making, because the president-elect understood that this was a “delicate and dangerous place to be”. Mr Barrack said: “What you have seen so far is a candidate Trump. What the international financial markets were reacting to negatively was the idea that candidate Trump would be unreliable and spontaneous. But what you saw in the acceptance speech is the shift from candidate Trump to President Trump — you saw deliberate, calm, conciliatory and predictable.” However, he stressed the view that something other than central bank intervention was now needed to take over as the driver of the economy, pointing instead to fiscal policy and infrastructure spending in particular. Public debt was currently low as a share of GDP in the US, he said, pointing to public-private partnerships as a way of enticing investment just as it does in other parts of the world. Mr Trump repeatedly argued during the campaign that the US had underinvested in its roads and ports and pledged to exceed the infrastructure plans being mooted by Mrs Clinton.

Donald Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office The Wall Street Journal / November 9, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi on Wednesday and will have his first postelection meeting with President Barack Obama on Thursday to discuss the transfer of power between their two administrations in January. Mr. Trump’s transition team has been gathering for months, and they packed into an office on Wednesday a block away from the White House to continue drafting blueprints for the new administration. Among the proposals: a policy that would ban many members of the transition team from lobbying the same federal agencies they are helping shape. The proposed ban, which may last as long as Mr. Trump is in office, would underscore the “change” theme that powered the Republican nominee’s surprising victory on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the planning. It would also limit his pool of potential hires by disqualifying or alienating many Washington consultants whose careers straddle public service and private business. “There will be a real effort to put in place dramatically tougher ethics reforms,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said in an interview about Mr. Trump’s administration. The transition team also includes a unit studying how Mr. Trump can quickly deliver on his promise to build a wall on the southern U.S. border to prevent illegal immigration. Mr. Obama, who was among Mr. Trump’s harshest critics on the campaign trail, struck a conciliatory tone in remarks Wednesday, praising Mr. Trump’s victory speech and pledging to work hard to ensure a successful transition. “I want to make sure that handoff is well executed, because ultimately we’re all on the same team,” the president said. Mr. Obama will use his meeting with Mr. Trump to discuss specific policies he would like to see carried over to the next administration, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Wednesday. Mr. Trump also will receive briefings from Mr. Obama’s national security team on foreign-policy issues. And the president-elect and vice president-elect will begin to receive the broader daily national security briefing that the president reviews each morning. A campaign aide said Mr. Trump’s conversations with the leaders of Israel and Egypt—as well as Saudi Arabia —were congratulatory, not policy-focused. The president-elect invited Mr. Netanyahu, who has had a tense relationship with Mr. Obama, to meet as soon as is feasible, the aide said. Mr. Trump’s transition team, like his campaign operation, has had a much smaller staff than previous Republican nominees, and hasn’t produced the voluminous policy proposals and potential legislation sought by other candidates, including Mitt Romney four years ago. Instead, they produce mostly two-page and 20-page memos on specific items about the function of certain agencies and what issues will be a priority on the first day, the first 100 days, and the first 200 days, according to three transition team members. The team has also been assembling a list of people to fill key jobs in a Trump administration. Some have been close to home. Among those discussed for attorney general are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a top campaign adviser who heads the Trump transition team, and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, according to two Trump campaign aides. Mr. Gingrich [age 73] and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani [age 72] have also been mentioned as potential candidates. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, Mr. Giuliani said he isn’t that interested in a post. “You never say no, but I’d rather help him find someone else who can do it. I’m very happy not being in the government,” he said. Candidates discussed for Health and Human Services secretary include Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Ben Carson, one of Mr. Trump’s former primary rivals, a member of the transition team said. Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin has been mentioned as a potential secretary of the interior, the member said. A chief of staff should be named within two weeks, and there will be a rush to have his cabinet nominated and approved within two weeks of inauguration, said Mike Leavitt, a former Utah governor advising the transition team. “The priority is to put a team on the field,” Mr. Leavitt said. “You’ll start to see significant proposals roll out, though not necessarily the expectation that they will pass right away. But there is a need to get the proposals on the table. I don’t know how prepared they are at this point.” Mr. Trump sketched a broad outline of his first days in office during an October speech in Gettysburg, Pa., a blueprint that was overshadowed by his threat in the speech to sue the women who had accused him of sexual misconduct. His actions, he said, would be aimed at cleaning up corruption and “special interest collusion.” He promised to protect American workers and “restore security and constitutional rule of law.” The plan included a hiring freeze on new federal workers, with exceptions for positions in the military, public safety and public health. He promised to eliminate two regulations for every new rule created during his time in office. He proposed a five-year ban on lobbying for officials who leave the executive and legislative branches of government. In his first days in office, Mr. Trump has said, he plans to announce he will reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and will withdraw consideration of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He plans to order his commerce secretary to identify, and then remedy, all foreign trade “abuses that unfairly impact American workers.” He plans to lift restrictions on tapping energy reserves, approve the Keystone XL pipeline and cancel billions in payments to United Nations climate-change programs. The New York businessman has vowed to cancel President Obama’s promise to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children, and start deporting as many as two million undocumented immigrants with criminal records. The first 100 days of the Trump administration “will focus on three to five structural reforms from day one, including controlling the southern border,” Mr. Gingrich said. “It will almost certainly include very dramatic civil-service reform to allow us to fire people who are incompetent or corrupt or breaking the law.” Several of Mr. Trump’s early initiatives could likely be accomplished through executive orders and regulatory changes, which would make it easy for him to execute because he can bypass Congress. But he could also seek congressional input to foster a better relationship with lawmakers, and his senior staff will have to decide soon on what agenda to set. Transition Team Gears Up The Trump transition team is working on two floors of an office tower about a block from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue. The team working on appointments meets on the eighth floor.The group includes New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the transition chairman; Rich Bagger, a former New Jersey state senator who was formerly Mr. Christie’s staff chief and is executive director of the transition; and former Heritage Foundation President Ed Feulner, the transition team’s principal domestic policy adviser. On the seventh floor are offices of The five main policy teams are being overseen by Ron Nicol, a former Navy officer and longtimeadviser to the Boston Consulting Group. The economics team is headed by William Walton, the head of a private-equity firm, and David Malpass, who was chief economist at Bear Stearns and a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate from New York in 2010. The national security team is headed by former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.). Retired Army Lt. Gen. J. Keith Kellogg heads the defense team, while former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is in charge of domestic issues. The management and budget team is headed by Ed Meese, who served as attorney general under President Ronald Reagan, and Kay Coles James, who served in both Bush administrations. A sixth team, run by Ado Machida, a former domestic policy aide to then-Vice President Dick Cheney, is devoted to reviewing President Barack Obama’s executive actions, as well as regulation overhauls and immigration. The immigration team is made up of staffers with ties to Sen. Jeff Sessions, the Alabama Republican who has long called for tougher immigration laws, and includes a unit dedicated to figuring out how to build Mr. Trump’s wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

.