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Why were the election polls so wrong? How Donald Trump defied predictions The Guardian / November 9, 2016 Republican Donald Trump will become the next US president. Many will be wondering who, among the estimated 129 million voters in the 2016 election, Trump has to thank for his victory. Possibly, not most of them. Current projections suggest that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton might narrowly claim a larger share of the popular vote. But the distribution of votes in the electoral college still means that Trump finished the night with 276 of the 270 college votes needed to win – and, once final counts come in from states that still haven’t officially been called, that count will probably jump to 306. As I have written, part of the reason Trump’s win is being described as a “stunning upset” is because most opinion polling was inaccurate. And yet, the only information we have right now to make sense of Trump’s victory is yet more polling data – this time from exit polls. Those exit polls point to one clear, deep divide in voting behavior – race. White voters chose Trump, non-white voters chose Clinton. This appears to be different from previous polling data, where the difference between candidates’ national popularity was so narrow that relatively small errors could affect the overall accuracy of results. The gap in Trump support between white voters and non-white voters is so large that even if exit polls were inaccurate, that difference probably still stands. Perhaps that’s not surprising for a candidate who was endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan. What’s more surprising though is that exit polling suggests Trump was able to slightly increase his vote share among black, Hispanic and Asian voters compared with Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012. There are other demographic cleavages in US voting, but they don’t appear quite as dramatic as the racial one. Exit polls suggest that, as expected, more women voted for Clinton while more men voted for Donald Trump. Much like the UK’s Brexit result, younger voters (a demographic which typically has lower turnout rates) seemed to choose the losing candidate. Only 37% of voters aged 18-29 voted for Trump, compared with 53% of those aged 65 and over. Those numbers come from Edison Research, which spoke to 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places across the country on election day. Exit polling data on income points to another surprising result. The poorest voters, those with an income of $49,000 or less, seemed to choose Clinton over Trump –albeit by a much smaller margin than in 2012. For months, Trump was projected to win big among this group. All this doesn’t necessarily mean that the numbers were wrong. These exit polls don’t reflect how people, or demographics, really work. American voters are not poor or black or female or college educated. In reality, people fit into multiple different groups at once. Two facts are simultaneously possible – that the poorest voters chose Clinton and that the poorest white voters chose Trump. In data analysis, this process of looking at two different variables at once means looking at the “crosstabs”. The exit polling data does offer us one such crosstab – race and educational status. Those numbers suggest that Trump has one very clear group supporting him: white voters who don’t have a college degree. The numbers on race and education point to such a clear cleavage that even if they are slightly inaccurate, the overall conclusion still likely holds true. That group might also offer some clues as to why polls were so badly off. Analysts have found that the states where Republican support was underestimated correlate with the states with a large non-college-educated white share of the population. But it might be an overstatement to say that this group secured Trump’s victory. To understand that, we would need a detailed breakdown of votes by state, which we don’t yet have. There are other factors here, such as the millions of votes which went to third-party candidates, and whether Democratic turnout overall was down (it appears that it was). Again, these numbers have their limitations – and they can be dangerous. Similar polling data led the Clinton campaign to feel quietly confident of a victory in Wisconsin and Michigan, and to therefore air few advertisements in those states. Both ended up voting for President-elect Donald Trump. .

Fed faces Trump glare ahead of policy shake-up The Financial Times / November 9, 2016 President-elect’s economic advisers say US central bank has created a ‘false economy’ The election of Donald Trump as US president will unleash a policy shift away from monetary policy towards fiscal measures in the coming months, some of his advisers told the Financial Times. In particular, some members of his economic advisory team are convinced that central banks such as the US Federal Reserve have exhausted their use of super-loose monetary policy. Instead, in the coming months they hope to announce a wave of measures such as infrastructure spending, tax reform and deregulation to boost growth — and combat years of economic stagnation. Mr Trump’s campaign rhetoric has fuelled concerns about the future of Janet Yellen (age 70), chair of the Federal Reserve, who faced unprecedented levels of criticism by the candidate during the campaign. Hours after the Republican stunned global markets by defeating Hillary Clinton, Judy Shelton, a member of Mr Trump’s advisory team, told the Financial Times that the US central bank had created a “false economy”. She reiterated that Mr Trump wanted to see someone at the helm of the Fed whose thinking was more in line with his. Thomas Barrack, chief of Colony Capital and an adviser to Mr Trump, sought to quell fears in the markets that Mr Trump would act precipitously on Fed policy, stressing that a President Trump would be a very different man than “candidate Trump”. Nevertheless, Mr Barrack stressed that it was time for a shift in the policy mix, echoing a widely held view among Trump’s advisers. “There needs to be change — we need something other than central bank intervention to deliver growth.” Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund manager and Trump adviser, said: “I definitely think we will have a shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy — most of the central banking community is calling out for other legs of the stool.” Mr Trump’s victory will cast fresh uncertainty over Fed policy after the central bank signalled that a rate rise looms in December. Some economists argued on Wednesday that the Fed may well press ahead with a quarter-point move in the absence of a violent market reaction to the election. Mrs Yellen’s term is not due to expire until 2018, but the election of a man who has been so critical of her during the campaign has triggered speculation about her future. Mr Trump has claimed Mrs Yellen was acting at the behest of the Obama administration in leaving rates low, but he cannot fire the Fed chair outright and she is not expected to leave before the end of her term. However, Mr Trump may have the opportunity to inject a more hawkish bent to policy by moving to fill two vacant positions on the Fed board in 2017. Ms Shelton suggested the criticism of the Fed was part of a wider policy rethink across the western world, pointing to the UK prime minister’s recent statement that ultra-low rates had bad side effects in punishing savers. Ms Shelton said: “Theresa May faulted the bad sides of monetary policy and said if you want an economy that works for everyone you have to re-examine the way monetary policy is conducted and imposed and implemented through the economy, and whether or not it treats people in differential ways — and whether that is in keeping with your constitutional values.” She did not offer specifics on the kinds of reforms Mr Trump would seek, but Ms Shelton is an economist and co-director of the Sound Money Project which has been campaigning for a hawkish monetary policy for a long time. “He has made it a very strong point of his campaign that he thinks that the Federal Reserve’s intervention and elongated accommodative monetary policy has created a false economy,” said Ms Shelton. “People who have worked all their lives have been penalised by these low rates.” Mr Barrack said Mr Trump would move “very slowly” when it came to central bank changes and allow policymakers to be independent in their decision-making, because the president-elect understood that this was a “delicate and dangerous place to be”. Mr Barrack said: “What you have seen so far is a candidate Trump. What the international financial markets were reacting to negatively was the idea that candidate Trump would be unreliable and spontaneous. But what you saw in the acceptance speech is the shift from candidate Trump to President Trump — you saw deliberate, calm, conciliatory and predictable.” However, he stressed the view that something other than central bank intervention was now needed to take over as the driver of the economy, pointing instead to fiscal policy and infrastructure spending in particular. Public debt was currently low as a share of GDP in the US, he said, pointing to public-private partnerships as a way of enticing investment just as it does in other parts of the world. Mr Trump repeatedly argued during the campaign that the US had underinvested in its roads and ports and pledged to exceed the infrastructure plans being mooted by Mrs Clinton.

Donald Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office The Wall Street Journal / November 9, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi on Wednesday and will have his first postelection meeting with President Barack Obama on Thursday to discuss the transfer of power between their two administrations in January. Mr. Trump’s transition team has been gathering for months, and they packed into an office on Wednesday a block away from the White House to continue drafting blueprints for the new administration. Among the proposals: a policy that would ban many members of the transition team from lobbying the same federal agencies they are helping shape. The proposed ban, which may last as long as Mr. Trump is in office, would underscore the “change” theme that powered the Republican nominee’s surprising victory on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the planning. It would also limit his pool of potential hires by disqualifying or alienating many Washington consultants whose careers straddle public service and private business. “There will be a real effort to put in place dramatically tougher ethics reforms,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said in an interview about Mr. Trump’s administration. The transition team also includes a unit studying how Mr. Trump can quickly deliver on his promise to build a wall on the southern U.S. border to prevent illegal immigration. Mr. Obama, who was among Mr. Trump’s harshest critics on the campaign trail, struck a conciliatory tone in remarks Wednesday, praising Mr. Trump’s victory speech and pledging to work hard to ensure a successful transition. “I want to make sure that handoff is well executed, because ultimately we’re all on the same team,” the president said. Mr. Obama will use his meeting with Mr. Trump to discuss specific policies he would like to see carried over to the next administration, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Wednesday. Mr. Trump also will receive briefings from Mr. Obama’s national security team on foreign-policy issues. And the president-elect and vice president-elect will begin to receive the broader daily national security briefing that the president reviews each morning. A campaign aide said Mr. Trump’s conversations with the leaders of Israel and Egypt—as well as Saudi Arabia —were congratulatory, not policy-focused. The president-elect invited Mr. Netanyahu, who has had a tense relationship with Mr. Obama, to meet as soon as is feasible, the aide said. Mr. Trump’s transition team, like his campaign operation, has had a much smaller staff than previous Republican nominees, and hasn’t produced the voluminous policy proposals and potential legislation sought by other candidates, including Mitt Romney four years ago. Instead, they produce mostly two-page and 20-page memos on specific items about the function of certain agencies and what issues will be a priority on the first day, the first 100 days, and the first 200 days, according to three transition team members. The team has also been assembling a list of people to fill key jobs in a Trump administration. Some have been close to home. Among those discussed for attorney general are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a top campaign adviser who heads the Trump transition team, and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, according to two Trump campaign aides. Mr. Gingrich [age 73] and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani [age 72] have also been mentioned as potential candidates. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, Mr. Giuliani said he isn’t that interested in a post. “You never say no, but I’d rather help him find someone else who can do it. I’m very happy not being in the government,” he said. Candidates discussed for Health and Human Services secretary include Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Ben Carson, one of Mr. Trump’s former primary rivals, a member of the transition team said. Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin has been mentioned as a potential secretary of the interior, the member said. A chief of staff should be named within two weeks, and there will be a rush to have his cabinet nominated and approved within two weeks of inauguration, said Mike Leavitt, a former Utah governor advising the transition team. “The priority is to put a team on the field,” Mr. Leavitt said. “You’ll start to see significant proposals roll out, though not necessarily the expectation that they will pass right away. But there is a need to get the proposals on the table. I don’t know how prepared they are at this point.” Mr. Trump sketched a broad outline of his first days in office during an October speech in Gettysburg, Pa., a blueprint that was overshadowed by his threat in the speech to sue the women who had accused him of sexual misconduct. His actions, he said, would be aimed at cleaning up corruption and “special interest collusion.” He promised to protect American workers and “restore security and constitutional rule of law.” The plan included a hiring freeze on new federal workers, with exceptions for positions in the military, public safety and public health. He promised to eliminate two regulations for every new rule created during his time in office. He proposed a five-year ban on lobbying for officials who leave the executive and legislative branches of government. In his first days in office, Mr. Trump has said, he plans to announce he will reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and will withdraw consideration of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He plans to order his commerce secretary to identify, and then remedy, all foreign trade “abuses that unfairly impact American workers.” He plans to lift restrictions on tapping energy reserves, approve the Keystone XL pipeline and cancel billions in payments to United Nations climate-change programs. The New York businessman has vowed to cancel President Obama’s promise to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children, and start deporting as many as two million undocumented immigrants with criminal records. The first 100 days of the Trump administration “will focus on three to five structural reforms from day one, including controlling the southern border,” Mr. Gingrich said. “It will almost certainly include very dramatic civil-service reform to allow us to fire people who are incompetent or corrupt or breaking the law.” Several of Mr. Trump’s early initiatives could likely be accomplished through executive orders and regulatory changes, which would make it easy for him to execute because he can bypass Congress. But he could also seek congressional input to foster a better relationship with lawmakers, and his senior staff will have to decide soon on what agenda to set. Transition Team Gears Up The Trump transition team is working on two floors of an office tower about a block from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue. The team working on appointments meets on the eighth floor.The group includes New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the transition chairman; Rich Bagger, a former New Jersey state senator who was formerly Mr. Christie’s staff chief and is executive director of the transition; and former Heritage Foundation President Ed Feulner, the transition team’s principal domestic policy adviser. On the seventh floor are offices of The five main policy teams are being overseen by Ron Nicol, a former Navy officer and longtimeadviser to the Boston Consulting Group. The economics team is headed by William Walton, the head of a private-equity firm, and David Malpass, who was chief economist at Bear Stearns and a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate from New York in 2010. The national security team is headed by former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.). Retired Army Lt. Gen. J. Keith Kellogg heads the defense team, while former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is in charge of domestic issues. The management and budget team is headed by Ed Meese, who served as attorney general under President Ronald Reagan, and Kay Coles James, who served in both Bush administrations. A sixth team, run by Ado Machida, a former domestic policy aide to then-Vice President Dick Cheney, is devoted to reviewing President Barack Obama’s executive actions, as well as regulation overhauls and immigration. The immigration team is made up of staffers with ties to Sen. Jeff Sessions, the Alabama Republican who has long called for tougher immigration laws, and includes a unit dedicated to figuring out how to build Mr. Trump’s wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

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GM axes 2,000 US jobs as small car demand wanes The Financial Times / November 9, 2016 General Motors will lay off 2,000 employees at two car plants in the US Midwest, the latest sign that the US car industry is suffering from softening demand, especially for some smaller models. GM said in a statement on Wednesday that it will cut the third production shift at plants in Lordstown, Ohio and Lansing, Michigan early next year. These plants build some of the slower-selling small car models in the GM stable at a time when demand for trucks and sport utility vehicles continues to be strong. The announcement, made on the morning after Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the US presidential election, did not appear to be election-related. Other US carmakers, including GM’s rival Ford, have recently announced production cutbacks in response to falling demand as the US car market hits its peak after seven years of rapid post-recession growth. The Lansing Grand River plants makes Cadillac ATS and CTS models as well as the Chevrolet Camaro, while the Lordstown facility produces Chevrolet Cruz sedans. While reducing the shifts will affect 1,243 and 840 hourly and salaried workers, respectively, GM said it will invest $900 million in three of its plants, including Lansing Grand River, to prepare for future product programs. The shifts come in response to changing consumer demand, GM said, as customers increasingly favor crossovers and trucks instead of cars. GM has been more bullish than other carmakers about the strength of the US market, leading investors to worry that it could end up with a glut of product, especially unpopular smaller models. “As expected, GM is cutting production of slower-selling cars so as not to build up inventories that require big incentives to move. This is evidence of the continuing and enormous shift of consumers buying far more utilities than traditional cars,” said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at Autotrader. “This comes on the heels of Ford making similar cuts with cars in the same categories,” she said. But news of job cuts could further inflame President-elect Donald Trump’s rhetoric about the need to keep carworker jobs in America. Yesterday, a senior GM executive defended the company’s use of Mexican plants, indicating it will not yield to political pressure to relocate manufacturing jobs to the US.

Volkswagen Wary Trump Election May Disrupt Diesel-Settlement Talks Bloomberg / November 9, 2016 Volkswagen AG expressed concern that Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president could disrupt talks to reach a settlement with U.S. authorities over the German automaker’s cheating on emissions tests for diesel cars. “I hope the election result won’t have more negative consequences for Volkswagen,” Chief Executive Officer Matthias Mueller said Wednesday. While Volkswagen has agreed to a $14.7 billion civil settlement covering 480,000 cars with 2.0-liter diesel engines, the company still faces criminal penalties and has yet to reach a deal on about 80,000 cars with tainted 3.0-liter motors. A delay in the talks would prolong the scandal and complicate Volkswagen’s efforts to emerge from the crisis, which erupted in September 2015. “The election of Donald Trump causes me great concern,” Stephan Weil, prime minister of the German state of Lower Saxony and member of Volkswagen’s supervisory board, said [arrogantly]. “Trump’s first task should be to bridge the existing divides -- that he himself deepened during the past weeks -- and carry out his duties with prudence and care.”

It’s Not Just Ford: Trump’s Trade Barbs Threaten VW, Toyota Too Bloomberg / November 9, 2016 Ford Motor Co. was a favorite target of Donald Trump, who lambasted the company for producing cars south of the border throughout his campaign. Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and other U.S. carmakers are just as exposed. Toyota and Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s largest automakers, were spared from Trump’s critique by name on the campaign trail. Yet, along with General Motors Co. and VW, they all rely on Mexican plants for millions of vehicles and a high volume of parts. That puts them at risk if the president-elect makes good on his threat to levy hefty taxes on cars assembled across the Rio Grande. “Trump could, or will, try to set up trade barriers,” said Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. “Automakers with U.S. factories will therefore be on the winning side. Mexico, the new El Dorado of the auto industry, could suffer.” Since 2010, nine global automakers, including GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, have announced more than $24 billion in Mexican investments. VW’s Audi, BMW AG and Daimler AG each build or plan to assemble luxury vehicles, engines or heavy trucks in the low-cost country, which Trump says has benefited at the expense of the American voters who propelled him to victory. Output in Mexico may more than double this decade, from 2 million to 5 million vehicles, according to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Republican candidate and real-estate developer grabbed headlines during his campaign by threatening to slap a 35 percent tariff on any cars Ford builds in Mexico and ships back to the U.S. He called Ford’s plans for a new plant in Mexico “an absolute disgrace.” A levy would lead to higher prices and hurt demand, said Joe Spak, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. Trump would “start a worldwide trade war” if he decides to end trade pacts and uses anti-dumping provisions to impose widespread tariffs on other countries, said Donald Grimes, an economist at the Institute for Research on Labor, Employment and the Economy at the University of Michigan. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), for example, requires only six months’ notice of termination to Canada and Mexico and doesn’t specify that the president would need congressional approval, he said. “These other countries would retaliate. Prices consumers would pay would increase sharply. The Federal Reserve would then increase interest rates. It would be ugly,” Grimes said. Despite that threat, U.S. automakers and the United Auto Workers union extended an olive branch to the president-elect. “We agree with Mr. Trump that it is really important to unite the country -- and we look forward to working together to support economic growth and jobs,” Ford said in a statement. The company’s plan to shift small-car production from a factory in Michigan to Mexico was attacked by Trump during his first answer of the initial debate with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in September. GM and Fiat Chrysler said in separate statements they would work with Trump and the new Congress on policies that support manufacturing in the U.S. “It’s obvious there is work to be done,” UAW President Dennis Williams, whose union endorsed Clinton, said in a statement. German executives attending an industry conference in Munich on Wednesday also expressed concerns about Trump’s views. BMW is building a new car plant in Mexico’s San Luis Potosi that’s due to start production in 2019, while Audi started assembling autos in San Jose Chiapa in September. “We need open trade,” said BMW CEO Harald Krueger. The luxury automaker ships many of the SUVs assembled at its South Carolina factory to markets around the world and in turn exports sedans and Mini cars to the U.S. from Europe. “We live off exports and imports. The U.S. market is fundamental for us.” Conciliation Hopes Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche and James Verrier, who heads supplier BorgWarner Inc., are among executives who held out hope that much of Trump’s trade talk was campaign rhetoric and would soften with the practicalities needed to govern. “Many things get said during the heat of an election campaign,” Zetsche said. “I hope and believe this is also the case here.” For Bob Lutz, the retired vice chairman of GM, Trump’s victory could ultimately help the auto industry if his advisers and Congress keep him from pushing his protectionist agenda too far. “He’s not a dictator,” Lutz said in an interview. “No one can go in and abrogate trade deals. There are some aspects of NAFTA that will probably be re-negotiated, but he will probably be talked out of his crazier ideas.” Rather than threaten Japan auto imports with tariffs, Trump has pointed to wealth generated from the cars being sold in the U.S. to bolster his argument for America to pay a smaller share of the costs related to stationing troops in its biggest Asian ally’s territory. “Japan is ripping us off with the cars,” Trump said at an Oct. 12 campaign event in Florida. In remarks to Ohio volunteers in July, he spoke of “massive ships” delivering vehicles to the U.S. from Japan, which he told Americans was “rich because of us.” Representatives for Toyota, Nissan and Honda Motor Co. declined to comment. Japan’s automakers have combined capacity to build about 1.36 million vehicles annually in Mexico and have announced plans for new plants capable of assembling another 430,000 vehicles a year. Models built or planned for Mexican production and sale in the U.S. include the Toyota Corolla, the Nissan Versa and Sentra, and the Honda Fit and HR-V. “If NAFTA is going to be up for discussion somewhere down the line, that would affect Japanese companies very much, especially auto-related investments in Mexico,” said Bob Takai, president and CEO of Sumitomo Global Research Co. “If the trading and investing is going to be very difficult because of the new presidency, we may go somewhere else.” .

US Xpress testing real-world fuel economy Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 Using six linehaul tractors taken out of regular service plus two pre-production new models provided by manufacturers, truckload carrier US Xpress is just concluding three days of fuel-economy testing on public roads. The PIT Group, a Canadian-based organization created to conduct unbiased efficiency testing, the project is intended to help US Xpress and other fleets associated with PIT identify the most fuel-efficient powertrain combinations available, according to Yves Provencher, PIT group manager. “Like most carriers we take fuel economy seriously, and we believe this test will help validate the decisions we make about our equipment,” said Gerry Mead, sr. VP of maintenance at US Xpress. With US Xpress drivers behind the wheel and support from the fleet’s maintenance staff, the trucks in the fuel-economy run ran a 52-mi. loop that started with a half-mile local access road from US Xpress’ Tunnel Hill, GA, terminal to I-75. They ran south for 25 miles using cruise control as much as possible and then turned around for the trip back to the terminal. PIT followed TMC Type III fuel consumption test procedures, Provencher said, adding that traffic was light, terrain was rolling hills, and weather was dry and temperate all three days. The six US Xpress tractors represented a mix of 2016 and 2017 models, engines, transmissions and rear axle ratios currently found in the company’s linehaul fleet, according to Dwayne Haug, consultant working with PIT and a former fleet maintenance manager. All six had automated or automatic transmissions and were speced with axle ratios and engines set up for low RPM highway operations. The six were as delivered from the manufacturers with no aftermarket items installed, Haug pointed out. “This is real-world testing, not track testing,” Haug said. That makes the data collected especially valuable to US Xpress and other fleet members of the PIT organization when investigating future equipment purchases that will maximize fuel economy, he added. Using fleet drivers was also an important aspect of the test, according to Provencher. “We wanted to get real driver input on these new technologies. That will be important for driver buy-in when [fleets] move to implement them later on.” Basic specs for the six US Xpress tractors were: Freightliner (MY2017) Cascadia Engine: Detroit DD15 455HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission: Detroit DT12 DA 1550 12 Speed Direct Drive Automated Manual Transmission Rear Axle: Detroit DA RT 40 Ratio: 2.41 Peterbilt (MY2016) 579 “6X2” Engine: PACCAR MX13 455HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission Transmission: Eaton Advantage 10 Speed Direct Drive Automated Manual Transmission Rear Axle: Dana Econo TREK w/ Bendix eTrac System Ratio: 2.69 Peterbilt (MY2016) 579 Engine: PACCAR MX13 455HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission: Allison TC-10 Automatic Transmission Rear Axle: Dana DSP40 Ratio: 2.69 Peterbilt (MY2016) 579 Engine: PACCAR MX13 455HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission: Eaton Advantage 10 Speed Direct Drive Automated Manual Transmission Rear Axle: Dana DSP40 Ratio: 2.69 Kenworth T680 (MY2017) Engine: PACCAR MX13 405HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission Transmission: Eaton Advantage 10 Speed Direct Drive Automated Manual Transmission Rear Axle: Dana D40-155H ADVANTEK40 Ratio: 2.64 Navistar Prostar ES (MY2017) Engine: Cummins ISX15 450HP 65MPH Set Speed Transmission: Eaton Advantage 10 Speed Direct Drive Automated Manual Transmission Rear Axle: Dana D40-155H ADVANTEK40 Ratio: 2.64 The test also included two pre-production new models provided by their manufacturers – an International LT and a new-generation Freightliner Cascadia. The LT had a Cummins/Eaton/Dana powertrain, and the new Cascadia an integrated Detroit powertrain. Preliminary results from the three days of testing will be shared with the 50 fleet members of PIT in about three weeks, with a full report to members following in about six weeks, according to Provencher. Any new members joining the organization will also be given access to the reports, he said. .

[Kowtowing] ATA Congratulates President-Elect Trump Heavy Duty Trucking / November 9, 2016 Trucking's biggest lobby, the American Trucking Associations, has congratulated President-elect Donald Trump on his victory in the 2016 presidential election. In a statement, ATA president and CEO Chris Spear expressed a desire to work with his administration to improve the economy and the nation’s infrastructure. “During the campaign, he highlighted the need to create jobs, and recognized that improving our nation's infrastructure is critical to strengthening the economy,” said Spear. “As the industry that moves nearly 70% of our nation's freight and is a key economic driver, we look forward to working with President-elect Trump on a host of issues, including long-term, sustainable infrastructure funding, tax reform, and fair and free trade.” As the President-elect assembles his Administration in the coming months to prepare for taking office on Jan. 20, 2017, ATA noted that it has already begun to work with Trump. “We have already begun meeting with the Trump transition team and look forward to working closely with the new Administration on issues that will allow the trucking industry to continue to grow and move America forward,” said Spear.

Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer May Be Trump Ally on Infrastructure Transport Topics / November 9, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump may end up turning to an unexpected ally — incoming Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer — to pursue several major elements of his agenda, including infrastructure. At times, Trump’s agenda lines up more closely with that of the New York Democrat than his own party’s leaders. When Trump delivered his acceptance speech early Nov. 9, the only policy proposal he mentioned was his desire to rebuild “our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals.” Such a plan is at odds with the fiscal restraint enforced by congressional Republicans, but echoes Schumer’s own statements. Trump has also talked frequently about cracking down on China for manipulating its currency, something that Schumer has spent years trying to persuade presidents to pursue. Later that morning Trump called Schumer, who congratulated his fellow New Yorker on his improbable victory. "It is time for the country to come together and heal the bitter wounds from the campaign," Schumer said in a statement. Trump, 70, a Manhattan real-estate developer, had long been a patron of Schumer’s political operation, donating thousands to his previous campaigns and to Senate Democrats in years past, before he embarked on his presidential bid. Schumer, meanwhile, has spoken repeatedly in recent days about needing to make Washington work in a bipartisan way regardless of who won the presidency. "There is a yearning among people in both parties to get things done," Schumer, 65, said in an interview before the election. "I think the party that’s seen as obstructionist is going to pay a price in 2018." That’s when Democrats will be defending 25 Senate seats to just eight for the GOP. Of course, there will be plenty of areas where Trump and Schumer will have a much harder time finding common ground, including broader tax relief, energy policy and the president-elect’s goal of repealing Obamacare. But Schumer has championed the idea of infrastructure spending tied to a corporate tax overhaul and has said he wants to rethink U.S. trade policies — in particular getting much tougher with China. Schumer previously authored bills with South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham to crack down on China currency manipulation. Lewis Alexander, a former Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury official, said Nov. 9 that he expects Trump to follow through with his campaign pledge to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. Trump has said he wants to spend more than $500 billion on an infrastructure package, with House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi of California among those on the left lauding the idea Nov. 9. “We can work together to quickly pass a robust infrastructure jobs bill," she said in a statement. House Speaker Paul Ryan, by contrast, doesn’t have an ambitious infrastructure stimulus on his to-do list. During a Sept. 19 appearance before the Economic Club of New York, Ryan said such a massive construction program isn’t a panacea for “organic economic growth.” "We’re not Keynesians, so we’re not a big believer in these multipliers," Ryan said. "There’s no substitute for organic economic growth, free enterprise, private sector growth," he said about infrastructure. Trump explicitly mentioned jobs in calling for infrastructure spending during his victory speech early Nov. 9. “We will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it,” he said. That statement sounded a lot like Schumer’s speech Nov. 8 celebrating his own re-election, where he pledged to work to "create millions of good-paying infrastructure jobs." As an outsider, Trump may also have little hesitation about working across the aisle. During the campaign, he frequently praised onetime Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont for opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Sanders also has long backed an infrastructure stimulus to create jobs.

Range-extended electric Wrightspeed refuse truck enters service Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 The first refuse truck featuring a Wrightspeed range-extended electric powertrain has entered municipal service with the Ratto Group, a Santa Rosa, CA-based refuse, yard waste and recycling collection and processing company. Designed to deliver economic, environmental and performance benefits in both OEM-installed new vehicles and existing fleet retrofits, Wrightspeed’s The Route is a scalable solution that has been recognized by The State of California for its ability to help meet progressive climate and air quality mandates, the company said. The Ratto Group's fleet of refuse, recycling and compostable yard waste trucks services over 140,000 customers in Sonoma County, Mariposa County, the City of Novato, and West Marin. Ratto and Wrightspeed plan to deploy more than 15 Route-equipped trucks over the next 12 months to meet community needs. "In a business that puts a premium on re-use, this represents the ultimate in recycling. We're literally recycling the recycling truck," said Lou Ratto, COO of The Ratto Group. "By integrating Wrightspeed's powertrains into our existing commercial fleet, we're initiating a progressive solid waste and recyclables collection strategy that will maximize the life of our vehicles, cut fuel consumption and emissions, and have a positive environmental impact on our service areas." "As an early adopter of our powertrain technology, Lou Ratto has solidified Sonoma County as a leader in pioneering new technologies that will improve and preserve the region for future generations," said Ian Wright, Founder and CEO of Wrightspeed. "We're proud to collaborate with Lou and his team and to establish our powertrain technology as the economical and environmental choice for cleaner, quieter and more efficient communities." .

Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 Dorsey Trailer announced the introduction of the weight saving Aluminum Giant all-aluminum platform trailer series. “Designed and engineered for significant weight savings, outstanding payload capacity and northern element corrosion resistance, the all-aluminum has a capacity of 80,000 lbs evenly distributed and an available 52,000 lbs. capacity in 4 feet,” according to the company. The Dorsey Aluminum Giant Series boasts a one piece welded I-beam design. Aluminum Giant trailers come standard with 5" extruded channel cross members on 15" centers and a coil package while maintaining a starting tare weight under 8,900 lbs. The 1-1/2" hollow core box extruded aluminum floor combined with custom pipe spool design allows the aluminum giant to withstand rigorous fleet conditions and the most demanding owner operator usage, the company said. Standard features such as 6061 T-6 aluminum construction, fully galvanized suspension, aluminum landing gear and fully sealed wiring harness ensure years of corrosion free work even in the harshest northern conditions. The Aluminum Giant Drop Deck shares the same fabrication materials, procedures and components, while featuring an all-aluminum drop neck design, which allows the end user to haul tall loads while maintaining higher payload capacity and superior corrosion resistance. All Aluminum Giant Series trailers are available with multiple beam packages and multiple axle configurations to meet all legal requirements and hauling needs, Dorsey concluded. .

Trump and trucking: 'great' infrastructure, end to NAFTA Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump has promised to make America’s infrastructure great again, but exactly how he’ll put his vision into action—and what those policies will mean to trucking—has not been settled. While highway users can be hopeful about his campaign pledge, based on his extensive construction experience, to “build the greatest infrastructure on the planet earth,” his recent policy outline leans heavily on user fees (and which some suggest means privatization, which means tolling). Still, the American Trucking Assns. anticipates having a seat at the transition table. “During the campaign, he highlighted the need to create jobs, and recognized that improving our nation's infrastructure is critical to strengthening the economy. … We look forward to working with President-elect Trump on a host of issues, including long-term, sustainable infrastructure funding, tax reform and fair and free trade,” said ATA President and CEO Chris Spear, in a statement. “We have already begun meeting with the Trump transition team, and look forward to working closely with the new Administration on issues that will allow the trucking industry to continue to grow and move America forward.” Free trade, however, might be a tough sell. In addition to his famous pledge to build a wall at the border with Mexico, Trump campaigned on a promise to undo the North American Free Trade Agreement. Not only do trucks carry the majority of overland trade with Mexico and Canada, truck makers have assembly plants south of the border. Morningstar analyst Keith Schoonmaker points out that railroads Kansas City Southern and Union Pacific would both be hurt by substantial changes to the trade agreement. “It’s pretty uncertain what the long-term renegotiation of NAFTA would look like, but even just the sentiment of ‘there’s a candidate who just won who thinks NAFTA is a bad idea,’—that certainly wouldn’t be a positive,” he said in a Bloomberg Markets report on the “aftershocks” of the Trump victory. Also, the Trump administration could roll back some Obama-era regulations. A morning-after note to clients from the Stifel transportation equipment team suggest the second round of greenhouse gas limits for trucks could be such a target, given the long lead time to implementation. As to Trump’s cabinet, the post of Transportation Secretary is conspicuously absent from the Politico’s post-election speculation. Broadly, the report suggests the transition team has a short list that features “industry titans and conservative activists who could comprise one of the more eclectic and controversial presidential cabinets in modern history.” Of course, every president submits budgets and plans, then Congress does what it wants. Trump the candidate was often at odds with the Republican leadership in Congress, so the first infrastructure project of the Trump administration is likely to be the repair of the political bridge to Capitol Hill. But Trump still should face less partisan resistance than President Obama, now that Republicans have held on to majorities in both the House and Senate. A key ally, after surviving challenges in the both the primary and general elections, will be Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. But as recently as the Republican National Convention in July, Shuster told Business Insider that Trump had not provided him with any specific plan. Still, Shuster noted that Republicans historically have been the “infrastructure presidents.” “Infrastructure is a Republican issue, but over the years we’ve lost,” Shuster said. “We’ve got to get back to figuring out how to build out and rebuild our national transportation. It’s essential to having a strong economy.” Another trucking ally in Congress, Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA) appears on the road to a narrow victory in his hotly contested contest. Denham has led the legislative effort to give interstate carriers relief from California’s minimum wage and rest break laws. A range of state and local transportation and infrastructure measures were on ballots, as well. These included: a “lockbox” amendment in Illinois, which passed easily, to require all transportation taxes and fees be spent exclusively on transportation projects similarly, New Jersey voters approved a constitutional amendment dedicating gas tax proceeds to transportation projects gas tax proposals struggled in several locations in Oregon and Nevada a transportation sales tax in Venture County (CA) failed to meet the two-thirds majority it needed, while voters in Stanislaus Country approved the tax. AASHTO has posted a more complete list of the transportation votes.

Trucking with Trump: Beware Fog Ahead Heavy Duty Trucking / November 9, 2016 While roughly half the electorate is still reveling in a historic presidential victory and the rest remains reviling it, the brass-tacks business of transitioning from the outgoing Obama to the incoming Trump Administration is already under way. Once Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 21st as the 45th President of the United States, it will be the first time since 2011 that one party has occupied the White House and controlled both the House and Senate. So, there will be lots of jockeying among key Republicans— both those previously for or against Trump-- and non-GOP Trump supporters for power in the roughly 10 weeks left until Inauguration Day. But since President-elect Trump has never been in lockstep with Republican orthodoxy let alone with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI)-- who barely endorsed the President-elect-- there’s no way of telling now how their vision of governing jointly will ultimately turn out. The handing over of the presidency began when President Obama on Nov. 9 pledged that he and his staff will “work as hard as we can to make sure that this is a successful transition for the President-elect.” Much earlier that day in his acceptance speech, Trump called “for America to bind the wounds of division.” Right after describing the electoral support he had received as “a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds and beliefs,” Trump pivoted to a brief rundown on specific policies he will pursue in which he noted infrastructure right off the bat. “We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals,” Trump stated. “We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none, and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.” The only published specifics on how the next President will accomplish that appear on his campaign website, where a policy plan declares that Trump will rebuild infrastructure via a “deficit-neutral plan” of infrastructure tax credits. A key albeit nebulous part of that plan aims to “refocus government spending on American infrastructure and away from the Obama-Clinton globalization agenda.” Trump also promises to “provide maximum flexibility to the states” for infrastructure projects. In addition, his plan echoes a core element of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal in that Trump aims to “create thousands of new jobs in construction, steel manufacturing, and other sectors to build the transportation, water, telecommunications and energy infrastructure needed to enable new economic development in the U.S., all of which will generate new tax revenues.” On the other hand, he sounds more like the business executive he has been for decades with his call for funding infrastructure by leveraging “new revenues” and working with financing authorities, public-private partnerships, and “other prudent funding opportunities.” Trump also wants to employ incentive-based contracting to ensure projects run on time and on budget and to “link increased investments with positive reforms to infrastructure programs that reduce waste and cut costs.” Trucking, if not every industry (and motorist) in the country, can’t argue with such a full-throated commitment to infrastructure. That the Trump plan’s heavy reliance on public funding, a.k.a. user fees and tolls, will be so warmly received by trucking advocates and other major industry lobbies is far less certain. Certainly, it is highly likely less regulation will be generated by Executive Branch agencies under Trump. Less certain is whether any rulemakings still in the pipeline, such as the GHG/MPG Phase 2 rules, will be delayed or simply abandoned outright. Given the reaction to Trump’s victory by Friends of the Earth, there is real concern among environmental advocates that little to no action on climate change will be taken by the Trump Administration. “Technicalities aside about whether President-elect Trump can remove the U.S. from the Paris [climate change] agreement, it’s clear that for the next four years, the U.S. government is unlikely to be a partner in global climate action,” said Friends of the Earth U.S. Climate and Energy Director Benjamin Schreiber. “The U.S. will likely make international climate protection efforts more difficult and that is why the rest of the world can no longer wait for U.S. action. Friends of the Earth U.S. is calling on the world to use economic and diplomatic pressure to compel U.S. leaders to act.” While some household GOP names— like former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as Attorney General— among other candidates for Cabinet posts have been publicly bandied about, there has yet to be any mention of a possible nominee for Secretary of Transportation. One interesting potential pick being talked up, by the way, is Forrest Lucas, co-founder of Lucas Oil, for Secretary of the Interior. Regardless of who joins the Trump cabinet, major lobbies, such as the American Trucking Associations, will keep pushing their respective agendas on Capitol Hill. So, for example, any new safety-related rules sought by the trucking industry, such as speed limiters on trucks or hair-testing for driver drug use, legislated into law as Congressional mandates will have to be enacted by the Trump Administration. ATA and other trucking advocates could find common ground with President-elect Trump on some issues. ATA President and CEO Chris Spear said the lobby looks forward to working with Trump “on a host of issues, including long-term, sustainable infrastructure funding, tax reform, and fair and free trade.” Working with Trump on the latter issue may take some doing as Trump did campaign heavily and harshly against free trade agreements, including the existing NAFTA accord with Canada and Mexico and the yet-to-be-ratified Trans Pacific Partnership. Speaking about international trade just last month, ATA’s Spear said that “any attempt to reopen or threaten this longstanding [NAFTA] agreement could have dire repercussions on our industry. And not adopting TPP will undoubtedly will push those potential Asian Rim partners towards a future agreement with China. America relies of free trade and trucking is key.” Trump, of course, also got good news about the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. The House remains solidly in GOP hands while the Republicans held onto their Senate majority. The real question going forward is whether Trump and the GOP leaders on Capitol Hill leaders will see eye to eye and for long enough to pass major legislation, including all the nuances of how various measures will actually be funded. For one big example, will trucking sign off on a highway bill that is largely funded by private sources? And let’s not forget free trade. That's an arena in which many Democrats lately have been sounding and acting more like Republicans long have and Donald Trump has not— at least not when he was in campaign mode.

Fleet Owner / November 9, 2016 Executives with Volvo Trucks North America (VTNA) and Mack Trucks – both subsidiaries of the Sweden-based Volvo Group – continue to expect Class 8 sales to finish 2016 down from 2015 levels, with that decline to continue on into 2017. By contrast, however, demand for construction trucks remains strong, according to Jonathan Randall, the newly-installed senior vice president for Mack – he’s been with the OEM for six months – with the construction truck segment size climbing from 11% of the market based on year-to-date numbers through August 2015 in the U.S. and Canada to 14% based on year-to-date data through August of this year, with further “segment expansion” expected in 2017. “This is for 10-liter engine equipped construction trucks and above,” Randall emphasized. “This is right in our wheelhouse and represents a strong opportunity for Mack.” Yet overall Class 8 truck market demand will continue to shrink, he pointed out during a press event here to provide an in-depth look at the company’s Uptime Centers program. Randall said Class 8 demand is expected to fall to 240,000 units by the end of this year, compared to 301,740 units in 2015, and decline further to 215,000 units in 2017. He also believes demand for over-the-road tractors will keep shrinking as a percentage of the overall Class 8 sales market as well. Jeff Lester, VTNA’s senior vice president, offered a similar outlook for the Class 8 market, expected total Class 8 demand to end 2016 at 240,000 units and dropping to 215,000 units in 2017. “We’re seeing continued high inventory-to-sales ratios across the economy, leading to flat manufacturing rates and reduced freight volumes,” he said. Lester added that the long-haul portion of Class 8 demand is projected to continue shrinking from just over 50% of the market in 2015 to 45% this year and next. Demand in the regional segment is expected to remain flat, though demand for construction trucks expected to continue growing. Mack’s Randall added that the OEM plans to make its GuardDog Connect service a standard feature on its LR and MR low-entry cabover truck models equipped MP engines starting in the first quarter of next year. “I love our iron – I think it’s gorgeous – but we recognize it is also a means to an end for our customer,” he explained. “Uptime support is as important for our refuse customers as our highway customers,” noted Curtis Dorwart, Mack’s refuse product marketing manager, in a separate statement. “Uptime is a must-have for all of our customers, and refuse customers are no exception,” he added. “Offering GuardDog Connect enables us to provide the same high level of service and support to all Mack-powered vehicles in our lineup, addressing the needs of all customers, in all applications.” Related reading - http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/44647-mack-trucks-names-senior-vp-of-sales-for-north-america/

Labor union anger fueled Trump in Midwest Automotive News / November 9, 2016 Union members helped Republican Donald Trump win surprising victories in the industrial Midwest. In Ohio, Trump won a majority of votes from union members, according to exit polling, which also showed added strength for Trump in union households nationally and in other auto-producing states. The reason, says labor expert Harley Shaiken: “Trump’s message resonated, and Clinton’s did not.” Shaiken said Clinton may have underestimated “how much damage had been done to communities in the Midwest” as she talked about trade and the loss of manufacturing jobs. He said the UAW’s election efforts, as well as those from other unions, were swamped by the anger of Trump supporters. “It was far more than any single union could address, and even the labor movement generally,” said Shaiken, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. On social media, a number of UAW members said they supported Trump in the election and chided their union for its earlier support of Hillary Clinton over her Democratic primary opponent, Bernie Sanders. In a written statement, UAW President Dennis Williams thanked his members and retirees for their efforts during the campaign, and called for unity. “It’s obvious there is work to be done. We have high hopes that elected officials heard the American people loud and clear about trade, jobs, education and the inequality in this country.” Williams is scheduled to speak to the media Thursday afternoon. Shaiken said the election’s outcome will likely cause the UAW to “redouble” its ongoing organizing efforts under the current labor-friendly administration. Though he didn’t get a vote, Jerry Dias, president of Unifor — the union representing tens of thousands of Canadian auto workers — was more blunt. “The politics of hate are not part of my beliefs and move us [backward],” Dias wrote. “My resolve to fight for progressive change is renewed.”

Did GM downplay debut of SUV to avoid Trump's wrath? USA Today / October 30, 2016 If you're wondering why you haven't read a review of the Buick Envision SUV yet, blame Donald Trump. That theory has gained currency among the automotive press, and I find myself increasingly persuaded by it. General Motors has been completely open about the fact that it builds the Buick Envision in China. It is one of the first new vehicle models imported into the U.S. from China from a major automaker. The Republican nominee so politicized the auto industry this year with factually challenged attacks on Ford that General Motors may have soft-pedaled the introduction of a promising new vehicle to avoid becoming a partisan target. GM, having spent way too much time in the political cross hairs during the Great Recession, declined to comment. The Envision, if you haven’t heard of it — and you may not have, because its sales launch this summer was quiet as a ninja at midnight — is an intriguing new compact SUV. Attractive and well-equipped, it competes with small luxury crossovers like the Audi Q3, BMW X1, Lexus NX and Mercedes GLC. It has sold well and won Buick new customers since reaching dealerships in May, but the U.S. sales launch has been anything but typical. Normally, automakers can’t wait to get a vehicle like this into the hands of journalists who will write about its technology, design, efficiency and value. Not so the Envision, which went on sale months before most reporters and critics got to sit in one, much less give it a meaningful test. Why? The theory — first espoused in Automotive News in the summer, I believe — was that GM felt the political winds blowing from an ugly quarter this year and battened the hatches. Since Envision was an addition to the Buick lineup, its Chinese production didn’t cost American jobs [U.S. production would have created jobs in the U.S. market where GM would profit from sales], and strengthens GM and Buick with sales of a vehicle they wouldn’t have without Chinese production. Yet earlier this month, Buick didn’t send an Envision to the North American Car of the Year jury’s test of semifinalists for the car, truck and utility vehicle of the year awards. The comparison drive attracted several dozen vehicles from nearly every major manufacturer. It took place among southeast Michigan lakes and woods, barely an hour’s drive from Buick headquarters on the Detroit riverfront. Hyundai, Nissan, Honda, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Porsche, Volvo, Kia and Genesis had no trouble getting vehicles to the event, where about 40 leading journalists spent three days evaluating them. Buick’s stablemates at General Motors — Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC — had no trouble getting vehicles to the test. Buick managed to deliver a LaCrosse large sedan, the other new model it launched this year. There are a hundred good reasons to build the Envision in China [???], but Ford had a hundred good reasons for moving production of the Focus compact car to Mexico. That didn’t keep Donald Trump from making Ford his piñata in a series of vituperative speeches.

GM invests millions in Mexico as Ford absorbs Trump's blows Bloomberg / October 14, 2016 After more than a year of watching Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump bash Ford Motor Co. for moving jobs to Mexico, General Motors Co. has pushed ahead with its own expansion. It just hasn't said as much as Ford. GM is advancing on an $800 million investment for its global small-car lineup that includes a factory retooling in San Luis Potosi state. That plant and another factory in Mexico will also build the redesigned Chevy Equinox crossover next year, people familiar with the matter said. The automaker has only said that the next Equinox will be built in a factory in Canada and two other sites, keeping mum about Mexico and avoiding both attention from Trump and the chance that the news might have roiled labor talks in Canada last month, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Taking a lower profile has kept GM out of Trump's cross-hairs and helped the Detroit company reach an agreement with its Canadian union, even as the Republican candidate singled out Ford's latest Mexican factory plan as "an absolute disgrace." For Mexico, GM's tight-lipped approach hints at how U.S. companies might operate if Trump wins the election after campaigning against the North American Free Trade Agreement. "Big American companies are being cautious, they don't want to have issues with the presidential candidates," Mario Chacon, head of global business promotion at Mexico's foreign investment agency, said in an interview. "They're feeling repressed because anything they say can be used against them." GM has been clear about its investment in Mexico, starting with an announcement in late 2014 that it would spend $5 billion there. The automaker just hasn't said much about the details since then. Ford splash Ford made a splash in April when, in the heart of primary season, the company said it would invest $1.6 billion in Mexico to make small cars. Ford CEO Mark Fields then said in September that the company would move all small-car production there. Trump's attacks have forced a reaction from Ford Chairman Bill Ford, who is great-grandson of the company's founder. Ford said in late September that the company makes more cars in the U.S. than any other automaker and that, "we are everything that he should be celebrating about this country." GM's investment in its factory in the Mexican state of San Luis Potosi was initially announced in November 2015, without specific plans or details. The plan came in addition to the $5 billion the company said it would invest in December 2014 to expand and retool existing plants in the country. GM says it isn't hiding its investment in Mexico. "For competitive reasons -- especially as it relates to future product -- the specific details behind the investments get rolled out as we deem appropriate," Pat Morrissey, a spokesman for the automaker, wrote in an e-mail. Morrissey also said GM has invested $20 billion in its U.S. operations since 2009 and employs 97,000 people in the U.S. and 15,000 in Mexico. In past years, GM has been vocal in promoting its new investments in Mexico. It held a ribbon-cutting ceremony for a new railway extension in San Luis Potosi in 2014, invited a governor to announce an expansion in Coahuila in 2010, and fired off press releases detailing even its smallest investments -- including an $87 million contribution to a stamping plant in March 2015. That same month it also announced a new model it would produce in Mexico: the new generation Chevrolet Cruze. Investing 'quietly' By contrast, GM has no press statements on its website about investments in Mexico this year. There has been no information about the Equinox in Mexico, nor on where all of the $800 million pledged in November would be spent. The automaker has confirmed it will build the Chevrolet Equinox at a plant in Ingersoll, Ontario. GM also said it would make the Equinox and its stablemate, the GMC Terrain, at two other unidentified factories. "Companies don't halt their investment decisions for political reasons, they simply do it quietly," Chacon said. "No company wants to have big announcements now because they could see a negative reaction from unions in other countries. So decisions aren't made out in the open but they continue. They can't stop." GM President Dan Ammann had little to say about the political controversy that has embroiled Ford during election season. "We're observing," Ammann said in an interview with Bloomberg. Mexican benefits Labor costs that are about a fifth of U.S. levels have lured most carmakers to set up shop or expand in Mexico in recent years. Since the beginning of 2010, Mexico has snared $25.8 billion in announced investments, according to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Kia Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG's luxury Audi unit inaugurated billion-dollar plants last month. A joint venture of Daimler AG and Nissan Motor Co. is working on a factory that will assemble compact vehicles, while Toyota Motor Corp. plans to produce Corollas. BMW AG is also building a plant. In addition to lower labor costs, Mexico also offers a network of international trade deals and proximity to the U.S. car market. "Mexico's free trade agreements, geography and labor costs make it more attractive than Brazil," Horacio Chavez, Kia's Mexico country chief, said in an interview last month. "It allows us to reach many markets."

Automakers, dependent on Mexico, face a rougher road with Trump Reuters / November 9, 2016 The election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. president put new pressure on automakers and other manufacturers that depend on open trade with Mexico. Shares fell for U.S. automakers and suppliers, which rely heavily on production in Mexico to feed their U.S. manufacturing and sales operations. General Motors shares dropped as much as 4 percent on Wednesday before recovering some of that decline in the late afternoon. The automaker said on Wednesday it was laying off 2,000 people and cutting a shift at a Lordstown, Ohio, factory that builds Chevrolet Cruze small cars and at a Lansing, Mich., plant that builds slow-selling Cadillac sedans and Chevrolet Camaro sports cars. Ford Motor Co. shares were up 1.2 percent in late afternoon trading after sliding earlier in the day. Electric luxury car maker Tesla Motors Inc. shed 3.3 percent. Tesla could be hurt if a Trump administration cuts federal support for electric cars. Shares of big automotive parts makers that have shifted operations to Mexico were hit hard. Delphi Automotive fell nearly 6 percent after rebounding from deeper losses. Canada's Magna International Inc., whose Mexican operations account for about 14 percent of sales, were down 3.7 percent. Trump made attacks on the outsourcing of American auto jobs to Mexico a recurrent theme in his campaign, a message that rallied blue-collar workers while threatening to upend the business assumptions behind billions of dollars in planned investment by the auto industry. Tension over Ford plants In announcing his campaign in June 2015, Trump vowed to block Ford from opening a new plant in Mexico and threatened to impose tariffs on cars it shipped back across the border. But those moves would force U.S. consumers to pay higher prices for vehicles, said Charles Chesbrough, senior economist at the Detroit-based Original Equipment Suppliers Association trade group. "(Trump's) trade policies could add $5,000 or more to the price of a small car from Mexico," Chesbrough said. U.S. vehicle manufacturers and many of their suppliers have based billions of dollars of investment on relatively open trade with Mexico, China and other countries. Ford in April announced plans to invest $1.6 billion to expand production of small cars in Mexico. Trump took aim at that move as well as GM's plans to invest $5 billion there. GM said in a statement on Wednesday that it "looks forward to working with President-elect Trump and the new Congress on policies that support a strong and competitive U.S. manufacturing base." Ford spokeswoman Christin Baker said: "We agree with Mr. Trump that it is really important to unite the country, and we look forward to working together to support economic growth and jobs." In September, Ford said it would shift small-car production from U.S. plants to lower-cost Mexico, drawing another rebuke from Trump. "We shouldn't allow it to happen," Trump said. Ford said its decision to build new vehicles in Mexico would not cost U.S. jobs. Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford last month said he met with Trump to discuss criticism from the candidate but called the discussion "infuriating" and "frustrating." Ford said his company employed more people at its U.S. plants than any other automaker. Ford has not slowed investment outside the U.S. As ballots were cast in the United States on Tuesday, Bill Ford was in India to announce a $195 million investment in a new technical center near Chennai. Between 1994 and 2013, the number of auto factory jobs dropped by a third in the United States and rose almost fivefold in Mexico as lower-wage production boomed. Mexico now accounts for 20 percent of all vehicle production in North America and has attracted more than $24 billion in investment from the industry since 2010, according to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. Based on current investment plans, Mexico's auto production capacity will grow by another 50 percent over the next five years, said the [biased] center, which draws funding from the industry. "Dismantling NAFTA at this point would be pretty hard to do," said Kristin Dziczek, the center's director of industry, labor and economics.

Car & Driver / November 2016 Overview: The GMC Canyon was revived for a second generation in 2014 alongside its Chevrolet Colorado twin and immediately reinvigorated the moribund mid-size pickup market. Where once these trucks were left to languish for a decade or more without significant changes—or were killed outright—the fresh General Motors duo were quickly joined by an updated Toyota Tacoma and a redesigned Honda Ridgeline, while a new Nissan Frontier and a reborn Ford Ranger should be online within three years or so. The Canyon offers two cabs (extended and crew) and two bed lengths. Four-wheel drive can be found on most trim levels. Available engines include a 200-hp, 191-lb-ft 2.5-liter four-cylinder in lower trims that’s as slow as it is undesirable. If you can spring for a higher trim where the 308-hp V-6 is standard—or the roughly $1200 to upgrade where it’s not—do it. [Only] Crew-cab Canyons can be ordered with an optional diesel engine. The 2.8-liter Duramax four-cylinder costs $3730 more (except in the 2WD SLE short-bed crew cab, where it runs $4965) and delivers 181 horsepower and 369 lb-ft of torque, along with up to 7700 pounds of towing capacity. Although if you’re towing anywhere near 7000 pounds with a Canyon—never mind 7700—we suggest you step up to a half-ton truck like GMC’s Sierra 1500. While pricing for the most part is fairly close between the Chevy and the GMC—the gap widens slightly when moving to the upper trim levels, where the Canyon offers a few additional baubles—the main difference is that the GMC offers the Denali trim at the top of the range for those who desire the fanciest mid-size truck money can buy. The truck we drove for this review was a four-wheel-drive Denali crew cab equipped with the Duramax diesel, and it had all of the luxury and tech appointments one can get in GMC’s smallest pickup, including 4G LTE Wi-Fi connectivity, Apple CarPlay, lots of USB ports, heated and cooled front seats, a stitched dashtop, and more. What’s New: For 2017, the Canyon’s V-6 option was upgraded to GM’s latest 3.6-liter model, paired to a new eight-speed automatic. While the displacement remains the same as before, the six-cylinder is substantially revised and adds 3 horsepower and 6 lb-ft of torque over last year’s model. It’s more efficient, too, but only just: city and highway economy are unchanged, but the EPA combined rating has gone up by 1 mpg on both two- and four-wheel-drive models. Perhaps more important is that V-6 Canyons should be quicker; we recently tested a V-6 Colorado with the new hardware and it shaved more than a second off its zero-to-60-mph time. Two trims are new this year: the Denali and the All Terrain X. The former brings a brash chrome grille, more chrome exterior trim, 20-inch wheels, heated and ventilated front seats, nicer leather upholstery, and a heated steering wheel. The Denali also features the top-level 8.0-inch infotainment touchscreen, navigation, remote start, and automatic climate control. Oh, and a pile of Denali badges and logos for the door sills, front headrests, steering wheel, doors, tailgate, and floor mats. The Canyon’s All Terrain X package isn’t as badass as the one available for the Sierra 1500, but it does snag off-road tires, all-weather floor mats, side steps, hill-descent control, specific 17-inch wheels, and an off-road-tuned suspension. What We Like: If you want a diesel engine in a truck that’s somewhat easier to maneuver and park than a full-size rig, your list starts and ends with the Canyon and the Colorado. The diesel engine pulls smartly off the line thanks to its abundant torque, which helps enable the big-for-a-small(er)-truck tow rating. The diesel powertrain is relatively well-behaved in terms of noise, vibration, and harshness, thanks in part to the extra sound-deadening material it gets; while the Duramax isn’t exactly quiet, it never sounds unpleasant. The diesel returns impressive fuel economy, achieving 22 mpg overall in our testing and 28 mpg on our 200-mile highway loop. The Canyon is easy to wield around town, especially in short-wheelbase form, it’s relatively quiet while cruising, and its ride quality is good even with the larger wheel options. (Broken pavement can introduce a chopping motion at the rear when unladen, but, hey, it’s a leaf-sprung pickup.) The updated V-6 is smooth and powerful and the new eight-speed automatic shifts unobtrusively. The extended-cab versions have adequate rear-seat room, while rear passengers have access to two USB charging ports. Finally, interior ergonomics are solid, and the Canyon looks handsome inside and out. What We Don’t Like: The Denali has most of the features you’d expect at its price, but the interior appointments disappoint. Even in our approximately $44,000 example, the door panels are topped with hard, shiny plastic—and the pockets in those door panels are exceptionally undersize—while the “wood” trim is obviously plastic playing dress-up. All Canyons and Colorados, including the Denali, come up a bit short in features and amenities, however, including only a single-zone automatic climate control, no full-power seats, and no proximity key entry and push-button start. These faults can be forgiven in some of the lesser trims, but then you dance with the possibility of the four-cylinder engine, which feels wheezy and overtaxed even before you start to put the Canyon to work. Ingress can be a bit of a chore, requiring a hop up through somewhat small door apertures. The Canyon also can get quite expensive, approaching $50K when fully outfitted—at that point, we’re eyeing any of several excellent and well-equipped full-size pickups, including the $52,505 F-150 Raptor. The Canyon’s biggest problem, however, comes in the form of Honda’s Ridgeline, which offers enough capability for most day-to-day chores while delivering comfort, handling, stowage solutions, and refinement that the better-looking GMC can’t come close to matching. Verdict: A solid, stylish, and small(ish) truck with a Honda problem. Photo gallery - http://www.caranddriver.com/photo-gallery/2017-gmc-canyon-quick-take-review

Dana Press Release / October 17, 2016 . . .