Report Projects Decline of U.S. Diesel Demand After 2015

[kscarbel2]

Transport Topics / October 29, 2014

Higher vehicle efficiencies and the growing use of compressed natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles will lead to a decline in U.S. diesel demand beginning in 2016, according to a report released Oct. 29.

Those changes will “more than offset a substantial increase in the number of diesel-powered light-duty vehicles in the market,” said the report by the PIRA Energy Group.

The study, “An Assessment of the Diesel Fuel Market: Demand, Supply, Trade and Key Drivers,” was commissioned by the Fuels Institute with funding from the Natso Foundation, the research and public outreach subsidiary of Natso Inc., a trade group that represents truck stops.

U.S. diesel demand is expected to drop 12.5% from a near-term peak of about 4 million barrels per day in 2015 to 3.5 million bbd in 2030, the report said.

Diesel demand will be strongly affected by new fueling options, shifts in fuel usage and improved efficiencies, in both light- and heavy-duty applications, and in industrial applications, it said.

“Changing consumer demand for diesel fuel will have a significant effect on fuel retailers and the U.S. economy,” Natso Foundation President Lisa Mullings said.

“This report will help truck stops and travel plazas develop a sound strategy for optimizing these market changes to lead the fuel retailing industry into the future,” she added.

The report is available for download at www.fuelsinstitute.org.

[kscarbel2]

I long imagined this was going to happen, diesel demand peaking around the 2015-2017 period and then beginning a gradual fall, owing to reduced demand resulting from more efficient powertrains.

This throws the whole viability of natural gas-powered trucks into question.

[NY-B61]

But opens the door to $1 a gallon Diesel so plentiful you could bathe with it. Hope the sulfur content is boosted accordingly.