The hunt for drivers will intensify in 2015

[kscarbel2]

Fleet Owner / January 7, 2015

Figuring out how to find and retain truck drivers is only going to intensify for most carriers this year, according to experts, with many planning bigger wage boosts to aid in that effort.

In the latest survey issued by Transport Capital Partners (TCP), over 90% of carriers polled by the firm are expecting to increase driver wages this year – with more than a third expecting those wage increases to be in the range of 6% to 10% or double what was reported to TCP six months ago.

"Carriers are seeing potential applicants go to other sectors, like construction, where there is more predictable home time and where extra pay is not limited by federal hours of service (HOS) regulations,” noted Steven Dutro, a TCP partner, in the firm’s report.

“The end result is that revenue from rate increases will go into purchasing new equipment, driver wages, rising maintenance costs and regulatory costs – and not as much into the carrier’s pockets in 2015," he said.

Yet Eric Starks, president of research firm FTR Transportation Intelligence, that while such pay increase percentages can help alleviate the driver shortage near-term, much higher pay levels may be needed to help foster a longer-term solution to the issue.

“We think we’ll need to see really significant pay increases to start attracting real interest from the broader labor force,” he told Fleet Owner. “If we start seeing [driver] pay up around $80,000 per year, then you’ll see far more people willing to make the personal time sacrifices to work that job. At $45,000 to $50,000? Not so much.”

Starks is also unsure how “aggressive” the trucking industry as a whole is prepared to be on the pay issue, which is why he thinks more than a few may opt to focus instead on what he called “margin growth” scenarios.

“If capacity remains tight, instead of expanding operations, many [fleets] may instead focus on increasing rates and their [profit] margins, then share it with their corps of current drivers,” Starks said. “They won’t grow their fleet but they also won’t have to go whole hog on big pay raises either.”

Richard Mikes, a TCP partner, added that carriers as a whole largely remain hesitant to add capacity because of that shortage of experienced drivers, with replacement far outpacing additions on order boards for new tractors.

One option he said carriers are contemplating is pushing for a regulatory change to allow younger drivers under the age of 21 to apply for commercial drivers licenses (CDLs).

Mikes noted that, according to TCP’s current survey, that “younger driver” concept enjoys large support in the industry, with 84% of carriers in the firm’s poll in favor of it. Support is similar between large and small carriers, despite smaller carriers typically hiring fewer inexperienced drivers, he added.

Yet although over 80% of the industry supports hiring younger drivers, the percentage of carriers actually hiring inexperienced drivers is only at 33%, Mikes stressed.

“It is likely that the shift to hiring more inexperienced drivers will continue, albeit slowly, [with] 64% of carriers surveyed indicated they would be interested in hiring less experienced drivers,” he added. “Larger companies are twice as likely to hire inexperienced drivers as smaller companies, perhaps because they have the staff and resources to invest in training facilities and co-drivers.”

[Green Dash]

“We think we’ll need to see really significant pay increases to start attracting real interest from the broader labor force,” he told Fleet Owner. “If we start seeing [driver] pay up around $80,000 per year, then you’ll see far more people willing to make the personal time sacrifices to work that job. At $45,000 to $50,000? Not so much.”

How profound! This conclusion has been reached in dozens of times over the years and yet driver wage increases have not kept up with the cost of living. Carriers are seeing healthy profits then taking out full page ads in the truck stop rags bragging how they increased pay by .01 per mile. I look for this article to copied/pasted with a 2016 date for when it's printed next January.

[RowdyRebel]

What scares me is the idea of a younger, less experienced work force in order to keep wages low. We've already got too many immature drivers who don't know what they are doing...and a lot of them are twice as old as what they're talking about allowing.

[Green Dash]

What scares me is the idea of a younger, less experienced work force in order to keep wages low. We've already got too many immature drivers who don't know what they are doing...and a lot of them are twice as old as what they're talking about allowing.

I agree. Sure there are some 18-21 year olds that could handle the responsibility, but they are the minority. I'm curious as to how it would suddenly be safe to allow kids in that age group to get a cdl.

[RowdyRebel]

They can already get a CDL, they just can't cross state lines commercially. What's next, let 16 year olds make weekend runs? Seriously, we have enough immaturity out here in the crowd we've already got...if anything, standards need to be RAISED, not lowered. Then again, as with anything else, you get what you pay for. Unfortunately for the rest of us, it makes it difficult to get paid what we're worth.

[mike69mackman]

Wish I could say I feel sad about this so called cliff but I don't. I just left the industry myself to take a local delivery job for a private fleet in a straight truck. Nobody wants to work in an industry where your just a number and get run till you drop. And treated like shit in general not only by the companies but by the General public. And don't tell me they're not all the same because they are. The trucking industry created this mess and as far as I'm concerned can fester in their own shit. Am I bitter? Hell yes I'm bitter. I spent over 20 years in the industry and have absolutely no desire to ever step I to another tractor trailer again. The trucking industry gripes about all the govt oversight? You brought it on yourself , deal with it.

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[mike69mackman]

That was what I wrote on another thread and I feel it holds true here also.

[41chevy]

I agree. Sure there are some 18-21 year olds that could handle the responsibility, but they are the minority. I'm curious as to how it would suddenly be safe to allow kids in that age group to get a cdl.

Add to that the inability to comprehend the American language and communicate in it. Most can't by birth or by texting shorthand.

[vision386]

One of the "major" carriers has a small satellite terminal near here with a CDL "training"" facility on premises. Trouble is this,they guarantee classroom to highway in 10 days! and an additional 10/20 days with a "certified trainer" (90 days solo qualifies you as a trainer BTW) The DMV has a long list of available languages you can take your test in,or utilze a certified translator. Women are encouraged to apply,as now all our fleet is 100% autoshift! I tend to agree with Mike,the trucking industry did this to itself,and I have no sympathy for the fallout left behind! with all the new laws etc. near poverty wages damn near impossible to make a decent living in a truck anymore,who the hell would WANT to drive a truck? the answer is just as expected,bottom of the barrel,that have nowhere else to go,thats who! Big money driving? bullshit! home every weekend? bullshit? but they will find out soon enough what the "real world/road: is like!..............................................Mark

[Lmackattack]

Seams the OTR driver employment retention is just a revolving door. The only way to change that is to improve pay or improve conditions.

[41chevy]

One of the "major" carriers has a small satellite terminal near here with a CDL "training"" facility on premises. Trouble is this,they guarantee classroom to highway in 10 days! and an additional 10/20 days with a "certified trainer" (90 days solo qualifies you as a trainer BTW) The DMV has a long list of available languages you can take your test in,or utilze a certified translator....Mark

So when Appu Wing Ding Chow Gomez has parked halfway in to my trailer, DMV will give them a translator to tell em what they did??? or will my head exploding be translation enough?

[grayhair]

I dunno about a shortage...

There is a shortage of 5 carat D Flawless diamonds unless you have $700K to spend, then no shortage at all.

There is a shortage of immaculate 1966 Pontiac GTOs unless you have $80K to spend, then no shortage at all.

And there is a shortage of drivers until the pay and benefits are really good, then no shortage at all.

Just sayin.

[Green Dash]

They can already get a CDL, they just can't cross state lines commercially.

I've never understood why they use a boundary limit rather than a distance limit. That law is cool for the driver that lives in Texas but certainly not the one in Rhode Island.

[RowdyRebel]

Because the feds only have the power to regulate interstate commerce. If a state wants to allow a 15 year old to get a CDL, they can...or if the state would rather keep CDLs for the 18+ crowd, they can...or if a state wants to say you must be 21, they can do that, too. Intrastate is under state control. Once you are 21, you can participate in interstate commerce because the feds have said 21 is the age.

[Green Dash]

I see. I was under the impression that the feds had full control of the CDL's and that federal law would take precedence over state law.

[RowdyRebel]

Nope. Feds only have regulatory control over intERstate commerce. It is why in some cases, an intRAstate carrier may be able to run longer hours or longer distances without a logbook, etc. States make up the rules by which carriers who operate solely within their border must play. Many states have passed laws basically mirroring the federal regulations....others have different rules. The feds don't get any say in the matter until state lines are crossed...or if hazmat is being hauled. It is why the cell phone/text regs only applied to interstate & hazmat haulers, NOT to intrastate carriers, farmers, etc. FMCSA can't make rules to govern those which they have no regulatory control over.

[gearhead204]

ok Rowdy got that, but can you explain why when I went in for a physical they told me that if I drive intERstate instead of intRAstate( which I only run in state ) that I need to come back and have it changed ? seems like some unnecessary crap.

[RowdyRebel]

Because the feds regulate interstate commerce and want your physical tied to your CDL. If you run intrastate, you may not even be required to have a physical if the state doesn't require it. When you check the box "intrastate" the state says "OK, you follow OUR rules, not the feds"...so if you want to change and go back to interstate driving, they want to know.