"BMT Investors" Bulletin Board

[Dirtymilkman]

2 hours ago, kscarbel2 said:

Mark, will you be attending the BMT Investors winter retreat conference in Rio next January?

Absolutely, then I am headed to Jamaica for 2 weeks for my birthday. My new Gulfstream is supposed to be completed by then. I'll take you guys up in it if you like. 

[kscarbel2]

Modine Manufacturing* set a 52-week low today of $14.90.

* Modine Manufacturing Company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway OEM vehicular applications primarily in the United States. The company operates through Americas, Europe, Asia, Commercial and Industrial Solutions, and Building HVAC segments. It offers powertrain cooling products, such as engine cooling assemblies, radiators, condensers, and charge air coolers; auxiliary cooling products, including power steering and transmission oil coolers; component assemblies; radiators for special applications; on-engine cooling products comprising exhaust gas recirculation, engine oil, fuel, and charge and intake air coolers; and chillers and cooling plates for battery thermal management. The company also provides heat-exchanger and microchannel Coils; unit, fluid, transformer oil, and brine coolers, as well as remote condensers; and coatings to protect against corrosion. In addition, it offers gas-fired, hydronic, electric, and oil-fired unit heaters; indoor and outdoor duct furnaces; infrared units; hydronic products, such as commercial fin-tube radiation, cabinet unit heaters, and convectors; roof-mounted direct- and indirect-fired makeup air units; commercial packaged rooftop ventilation units; unit ventilators; single packaged vertical units; precision air conditioning units for data center applications; air-handling units; chillers; ceiling cassettes; hybrid fan coils; and condensing units. It primarily serves automobile, truck, bus, and specialty vehicle OEMs; agricultural, industrial, and construction equipment OEMs; commercial and industrial equipment OEMs; heating, ventilation, and cooling OEMs; construction architects and contractors; and wholesalers of heating equipment. The company also exports its products. Modine Manufacturing Company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin.

[kscarbel2]

Garrett Motion, previously known as Honeywell and Garrett AiResearch, set a 52-week low today of $16.00.

[kscarbel2]

Fed chief Powell signals central bank is done with signaling

Ann Saphir, Reuters  /  September 27, 2018

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a new message for financial markets: watch the data on jobs, wages and inflation for signals on monetary policy - not the U.S. central bank’s words or forecasts.

That’s a big change for the Fed, which for most of the past decade has done what it could to steer markets on its policy intentions as it nursed a fragile economy to recovery after the financial crisis.

As part of that so-called forward guidance, the Fed for years described its policy stance as “accommodative” to assure markets that it would not strangle economic growth.

But on Wednesday, the Fed removed that phrase from its policy statement.

Some investors read the change as a sign the central bank was nearing an end to the interest rate hike cycle it began in December 2015; JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli called that a “stretch.”

Noting the U.S. economy is having a “particularly bright moment,” with unemployment expected to remain low, inflation stable, and no recession in sight, Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday that the removal of the “accommodative” wording was not a policy signal at all.

“The question we are answering is, how do we provide the economy just the right amount of support - not too much, not too little - to sustain the recovery and achieve our statutory goals” of full employment and 2 percent inflation, Powell said.

“We don’t want to suggest either that we have this precise understanding of where accommodative stops or suggest that’s a really important point in our thinking. What we’re going to be doing ... is carefully monitoring incoming data.”

The Fed on Wednesday announced a widely expected rate increase, its third of the year, bringing its target range for its benchmark overnight lending rate to between 2 percent and 2.25 percent.

Fresh economic forecasts also released on Wednesday showed most policymakers expect the central bank to raise rates five more times before stopping some time in 2020.

But Powell, in effect, said not to put too much store in those forecasts because they could change with incoming data.

He noted that he is unsure when the rate increases he and his colleagues expect to deliver in the next year or two will start to bite into economic growth, or whether the economy’s underlying momentum has sped up enough to offset any such drag.

As the Fed raises rates, it will look for signals from the economy, like a slowdown in the labor market or economy, a spike in wages or inflation, or a sudden tightening of financial conditions, to cue an end to its tightening cycle, Powell said.

David Papell, an economics professor at the University of Houston, summed up the Powell-led Fed’s approach this way: “Let’s wait and see.”

[kscarbel2]

Reuters  /  October 2, 2018

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday hailed a “remarkably positive outlook” for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future.

It is a view, he said, based on how a changed economy is operating today, with businesses and households immunized by strong central bank policy from the inflationary psychology that caused unemployment, inflation and interest rates to swing wildly in the 1960s and 1970s.

It is an outlook that includes an economic performance “unique in modern U.S. data,” with unemployment of below 4 percent expected for at least two more years and inflation remaining modest even as wages rise.

And it is an outlook he feels will even survive the Trump administration’s efforts to rewrite the global trading system, a policy shift Powell said may lead to one-time price hikes, but not to persistent changes in the annual rate of inflation going forward.

“This forecast is not too good to be true,” Powell told the National Associate for Business Economics, but instead “is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

“These developments amount to a better world for households and businesses which no longer experience or even fear the scourge of high and volatile inflation.”

Asked about the impact of tariffs on inflation, he replied that, so far, “we don’t see that in the data.”

Powell spoke as debate among economic analysts and investors has begun turning toward a central question: Will the current low rate of unemployment inevitably doom a near decade-long expansion by driving inflation to levels the Fed will have to suppress with faster and higher than expected rate increases?

That’s not the view contained in the Fed’s most recent round of forecasts, which sees a hot job market, steady economic growth, steady 2 percent inflation and only modest rate increases through 2021 - as if the United States had slipped into the sort of pleasant long-run equilibrium described in textbook economic models.

Seeds of Trouble

But several economists here argue that the seeds of trouble have already been planted, with companies using the recent tariff hikes on steel and other goods as an excuse to raise prices more generally, and to perhaps keep doing so.

At a time when Amazon announced a nationwide minimum wage increase that could put pressure on other retailers, the administration was trumpeting a trade pact with Mexico and Canada that will steer auto production to higher wage locales, and leaves in place new tariffs on steel, a key industrial input.

Boston Federal Reserve bank president Eric Rosengren said the current debate over globalization was not so much a “trade war” but “more of a supply chain war” that could take years to sort out as companies shift around production to higher-cost locales to escape tariffs on imports from China.

“Big importers will tell you it is not that easy to change...It becomes a real risk if all of a sudden you are not sure what your price is going to be,” he said on Monday.

Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citigroup and former chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said the spark could be lit early next year.

The costs of adjusting to tariffs and to trade uncertainty “gives firms cover to say, ‘I’m going to raise my prices,’” she told the NABE annual conference. “I’m timing it for the beginning of the year,” Mann said, when a windfall from this year’s tax cuts fade.

Powell, in his remarks, said the Fed is not blind to the possible “revenge” of prices rising as they have before during times of sustained low unemployment. The central bank is guarding against that with its current, gradual interest rate increases, and will respond “with authority” if an inflationary mindset threatens to take hold.

But he noted that many current and past Fed officials, himself among them, had warned in the years following the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis that falling unemployment and the Fed’s printing of trillions of dollars of new money would unhinge inflation at any moment.

It never happened, and he said there is no reason now to expect it will.

“I am glad to be able to stand here and say that the economy is strong, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and inflation is roughly at our 2 percent objective,” Powell said. “The baseline outlook for forecasters inside and outside the Fed is for more of the same.”

[kscarbel2]

Volvo fuel injection system supplier Delphi set a new 52-week low yesterday of $29.53.

Today, the CEO resigned after just 10 months on the job.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reuters  /  October 5, 2018

Auto supplier Delphi Technologies Plc said on Friday Chief Executive Officer Liam Butterworth was stepping down, more than ten months after taking the post.

The company, which also cut its full-year revenue forecast, said director Hari Nair would be the interim chief and its board has commenced a comprehensive search to identify a permanent CEO.

Delphi said Butterworth was stepping down "to pursue other interests." 

Butterworth had taken the top job in December after Delphi was spun off from Delphi Automotive, now known as Aptiv Plc. Nair has been a director at Delphi since the spin-off.

Nair has previously worked with Tenneco Inc. and General Motors.

The company said it expects full-year revenue growth to be about flat, compared with its previous forecast of up 2 percent to 4 percent.

Delphi, citing challenging industry dynamics, also cut its full-year adjusted operating margin forecast range to 11.3 percent to 11.5 percent, from 12.1 percent to 12.3 percent.

Up to Thursday's close, Delphi's shares had fallen about 41 percent since their listing on the New York Stock Exchange in late November. 

Delphi ranks No. 58 on the Automotive News list of the top 100 global suppliers with worldwide sales to automakers of $3.9 billion in 2017.

[kscarbel2]

The Dow fell 831 points yesterday. It wasn't a market crash, however it was a very, vary bad day.

After the President commented on it, things went from bad to worse (I don't disagree with him, just laying out yesterday's timeline of events).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“The Fed is making a mistake," said Trump. "They’re so tight. I think Fed has gone crazy. It’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for, for a long time. But I really disagree with what the Fed is doing, OK?”

Later, Trump said “The Fed is going loco and there is no reason for them to do it.”

 

[kscarbel2]

The Dow is down 550 points this morning.

There is a distinct possibility that this is the prelude to a global market crash alike 2008.

[kscarbel2]

Paccar (PCAR) today set a new 52-week low of $54.87, despite a 35 percent increase in net income. Volume was two and a half times normal.

[kscarbel2]

Ford (F) set a new 52-week low today of $8.17, closing up a penny at $8.18.

[grayhair]

$6.00 could happen.

[Maxidyne]

I wasn't impressed, so when F popped up in the high $8 range I figured it was a good time to get out. Sold most of my holdings, but kept enough shares to qualify for X-Plan pricing in case the Transit Connect diesel ever makes it to the american market.

[Dirtymilkman]

1 hour ago, Maxidyne said:

I wasn't impressed, so when F popped up in the high $8 range I figured it was a good time to get out. Sold most of my holdings, but kept enough shares to qualify for X-Plan pricing in case the Transit Connect diesel ever makes it to the american market.

I don't think that's gonna be the game changer. 

[Maxidyne]

With or without a diesel option, Transit Connect sales in the U.S. are virtually a rounding error on Ford's balance sheets. But I'll be tempted to buy one if they ever get here, and hanging on to 100 shares of Ford stock gets me X plan pricing. 

[kscarbel2]

Shares of Oshkosh (OSK) closed up 21.4 percent today.

The company earned $2.05 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.45 per share.

Sales grew year-over-year 13 percent to $7.7 billion.

Full-year earnings came in at $6.29 per diluted share, an increase of 67 percent.

[kscarbel2]

Volvo fuel injection system supplier Delphi crashed today, setting a new 52-week low yesterday of $18.67. Look for it to go down further.

The CEO resigned last month.

[kscarbel2]

.

 

[Maxidyne]

A lot of people in the U.S. miss this... Simply by having populations of over a billion each, China and India once they fully industrialize will have the world's largest economies.

[kscarbel2]

Why Paccar Inc. Stock Slid 16.1% in October Despite Solid Quarterly Numbers

The Motley Fool  /  November 12, 2018

The truck manufacturer is benefiting from strong trucking markets, so what's worrying investors?

What happened

Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) was on its way to a strong year when October happened. Shares of Paccar [and Navistar] got caught in the broader industrials sell-off, and even better-than-expected quarterly earnings backed by exceptionally strong trucking markets couldn't help investors shrug off their pessimism. Paccar stock finally ended October down 16.1%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, and has barely budged so far this month.

So what

Orders for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks in North America are sitting at record highs, with October likely to be the eighth straight month of industry orders of more than 40,000 units, according to research firm FTR. As a leading truck manufacturer in the U.S., Paccar is making the most of the good times, as evidenced by its third-quarter numbers that were released on Oct. 23.

In Q3, Paccar's production hit record highs, revenue climbed 14% to $5.76 billion, and net income soared 35% to $545.3 million. While the company didn't give out its backlog value, CEO Ron Armstrong revealed that Class 8 orders for Paccar's flagship truck brands, Kenworth and Peterbilt, more than doubled during the first nine months of the year compared with the year-ago period. Meanwhile, in Europe, Paccar's DAF brand achieved record market share of 16.6% in the above-16-tonne market, up from 15.1% same quarter last year.

Given those numbers, it appears fears of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and concerns about the trucking cycle peaking triggered a sell-off in Paccar shares in October.

Now what

While we can't say much about how long the trade war will last or how badly it'll affect Paccar, the trucking markets remain on a strong footing. Barely days ago, FTR raised its forecast for 2019 North American industry Class 8 truck shipments, as it foresees robust freight growth.

Paccar, for its part, is chalking out plans to increase capital expenditures in 2019 by nearly 20% of the projected 2018 midpoint of $450 billion on new truck models, diesel and powertrain technologies, and capacity expansion for both trucks and parts. So if not for the broader market sell-off, October would've likely been a smoother ride for Paccar.

[kscarbel2]

“They [China] put on the table an offer of over $1.2 trillion in additional [trade] commitments. But the details of that still need to be negotiated. This is the first time that we have a commitment from them that this will be a real agreement.”

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin

--------------------------------------------------------------------

“The history here with China promises is not very good. And we know that. However, I will say this: President Xi has never been this involved. They cannot slow walk this, stall this, meander this. Their word: ‘immediately.’”

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow

[kscarbel2]

Reuters  /  December 4, 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday held out the possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce with China but made clear he would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.

Trump said his team of trade advisers led by China trade hawk U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will determine whether a “REAL deal” with China was possible.

“If it is, we will get it done,” Trump said in a Twitter post. “But if not remember, I am a Tariff Man.”

The Republican president indicated he would not be opposed to extending the 90-day truce he and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on over the weekend.

“The negotiations with China have already started. Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina,” Trump said on Twitter.

Trump and Xi on Saturday agreed to the ceasefire in a trade war that has seen the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods between the world’s two largest economies disrupted by tariffs.

The two leaders said they would hold off on imposing additional tariffs for 90 days starting on Dec. 1 while they seek a solution to their trade disputes.

Trump has said China is supposed to start buying agricultural products immediately and cut its 40 percent tariffs on U.S. car imports.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday that a reduction in Chinese tariffs on U.S. cars and agricultural and energy commodities would be a “litmus test” for whether U.S.-China trade talks are on track to succeed.

The United States also expects China to promptly address structural issues including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, U.S. officials have said.

“So, again this will be a real agreement again and not that we can accomplish everything in 90 days but we expect to make a lot of progress and President Trump will be directly involved,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business Network on Tuesday.

Trump has long accused China of unfair trade practices that hurt Americans and the U.S. economy.

“When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power,” he said on Tuesday.

His appointment of Lighthizer to lead the talks instead of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin puts one of the administration’s toughest China critics in charge. Trump said on Tuesday that Lighthizer would work closely with Mnuchin, Kudlow and trade adviser Peter Navarro.

[Maxidyne]

Soy bean cash prices and futures have barely budged...

[other dog]

On 9/18/2018 at 4:07 PM, kscarbel2 said:

Modine Manufacturing* set a 52-week low today of $14.90.

* Modine Manufacturing Company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway OEM vehicular applications primarily in the United States. The company operates through Americas, Europe, Asia, Commercial and Industrial Solutions, and Building HVAC segments. It offers powertrain cooling products, such as engine cooling assemblies, radiators, condensers, and charge air coolers; auxiliary cooling products, including power steering and transmission oil coolers; component assemblies; radiators for special applications; on-engine cooling products comprising exhaust gas recirculation, engine oil, fuel, and charge and intake air coolers; and chillers and cooling plates for battery thermal management. The company also provides heat-exchanger and microchannel Coils; unit, fluid, transformer oil, and brine coolers, as well as remote condensers; and coatings to protect against corrosion. In addition, it offers gas-fired, hydronic, electric, and oil-fired unit heaters; indoor and outdoor duct furnaces; infrared units; hydronic products, such as commercial fin-tube radiation, cabinet unit heaters, and convectors; roof-mounted direct- and indirect-fired makeup air units; commercial packaged rooftop ventilation units; unit ventilators; single packaged vertical units; precision air conditioning units for data center applications; air-handling units; chillers; ceiling cassettes; hybrid fan coils; and condensing units. It primarily serves automobile, truck, bus, and specialty vehicle OEMs; agricultural, industrial, and construction equipment OEMs; commercial and industrial equipment OEMs; heating, ventilation, and cooling OEMs; construction architects and contractors; and wholesalers of heating equipment. The company also exports its products. Modine Manufacturing Company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin.

I hauled a lot of coils from Armco, now AK Steel, in Middletown, Ohio to Modine in Buena Vista, Va. in the 80's. Ace Doran had a terminal on I-75 and we'd go there and trip lease to them whenever they had loads going to Modine or Walker Muffler in Harrisonburg, Va. They were an owner-operator company and their drivers didn't care for either load, because they didn't like to run Hawk's Nest, it was hard on brakes, tires, engines, nerves, and everything else, and it was too far to run the turnpike all the way to Princeton and then 460 to Blacksburg and all the way back up 81. So they were glad for us to take those loads, and we thought it was our lucky day to get one. We'd go right across 60, with no engine brakes- pretty much nobody had an engine brake then, especially in the east- no power steering, and very little horsepower. And it was fun then.

[kscarbel2]

Marketwatch  /  December 10, 2018

The Paradox

The Fed “should” raise rates because the economy is strong, near full employment, even though markets see early signs of a downturn. Nothing about the jobs report changes that — even though headline job gains were low, manufacturers added 27,000 jobs, suggesting that, despite General Motors’ GM, -2.83%  big layoff announcement, the trade wars haven’t yet hit employment. Merrill still sees the unemployment rate falling to 3.2% next year as wages rise 3.5%.

But the Fed “shouldn’t” raise rates because higher rates’ impact on housing would only worsen with more hikes. Friday’s consumer-confidence report from the University of Michigan says consumers’ expectations for future economic conditions are cooling off, which could be bad for everything from cars to restaurants. Interest rates are a big part of that. And because the unpredictable president and his off-and-on trade war aren’t getting any easier to figure out.

The temptation is for monetary doves to say we told you so. If the Fed had moved more slowly, consumers would be more capable of picking up the slack as business investment stumbles on trade worries. It would be a better time for the Fed to raise rates, off of a lower base.

But in the world we live in, the Fed has already made housing and cars more expensive, with the biggest risks from Trump still waiting to be quantified. In preparing for a Ghost of Recession (or Inflation) Future, it overlooked the bogeymen haunting 2019’s economy now. It’s going to be a muddle because the Fed has done too much already.

[kscarbel2]

Navistar downgraded today to Sell from Neutral

Goldman Sachs analyst Jerry Revich downgraded Navistar International to Sell and lowered his price target for the shares to $23 from $43.

The analyst recommends an increasingly selective approach for the Americas Machinery, Engineering & Construction sector in 2019 amid growing signs of oversupply.