"BMT Investors" Bulletin Board

[kscarbel2]

As a result of President Trump’s tariff scheme, JPMorgan’s economics team has just raised their recession probability to 60 percent.

In a note entitled, “there will be blood,” chief economist Bruce Kasman and his team said this year’s 22-percentage tariff increase amounts to the largest tax hike since 1968.

[kscarbel2]

Legendary investor and PIMCO co-founder Bill Gross says investors should not try to buy the dip after the worst stock-market drop since the pandemic.

“This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences,” says Gross.

[kscarbel2]

China’s finance ministry on Friday announced it would impose an additional 34% levy on U.S. goods beginning April 10.

This week the U.S. announced an import tariff of 34% on China, which comes on top of the 20% tariff on those imports that the second Trump administration had already put into effect. 

The net result is a 54% duty on goods from China.

[kscarbel2]

Stagflation, the s-word rippling through Wall Street and Main Street, is a calamitous anomaly whereby the economy manifests low growth and high inflation at the same time. Anyone who remembers the 1970s will recall that it caused an economic crisis in the United States, ushering in a turbulent era of high prices, interest rates and unemployment — and considerable instability and pain. Stagflation unraveled two presidencies, Ford’s and Carter’s, and nearly destroyed Reagan’s.

Today, experts are worried that the new tariff regime, which is all but certain to raise prices, coupled with a tight labor market could return us to that era. 

“The data is continuing to support the narrative of weaker growth and higher inflation, with market-based inflation expectations continuing to rise,” says Deutsche Bank.

[kscarbel2]

Why don't we ever see the names of great American leaders like John Kennedy on presidential ballots? Apparently, they are not permitted to run.

[tjc transport]

i still dont understand why the demonrats feel it is ok for foreign countries to impose 20,30,nd 40 % tariffs on american exports, but it is the end of the world as we know it for america to impose tariffs on those same countries imports into america.

[kscarbel2]

The stock market selloff deepened, bonds pared gains and oil hit a four-year low, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today reiterating the central bank’s wait-and-see approach.

Powell said the economic damage of a trade war will be bigger than anticipated.

[kscarbel2]

  On 4/4/2025 at 3:29 PM, tjc transport said:

i still dont understand why the demonrats feel it is ok for foreign countries to impose 20,30,nd 40 % tariffs on american exports, but it is the end of the world as we know it for america to impose tariffs on those same countries imports into america.

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The Democrats couldn't possibly believe what they're saying. These are intelligent people.

Rather, it's as though they are reading from a script. They are controlled.

[kscarbel2]

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[kscarbel2]

There is a plausible theory..................that President Trump is deliberately tanking the stock market with his tariffs so as to force Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

Continuing to crash the stock market could weaken the dollar, thus making U.S. exports more price competitive. And it could lower mortgage rates stimulating domestic housing construction.

Of course, this would be very risky........everything would have to fall into place just right. Failure would be disastrous.

[kscarbel2]

As a result of the tariff action, major banks have issued the largest margin calls to their clients since COVID (March/April 2020). The scale of the calls suggests the steep sell-off will continue next week.

Hedge funds are facing Lehman-style margin calls as a market crash triggered by President Trump's tariffs raises fears of a "Black Monday."

The market's sharp downturn has forced hedge funds to sell off assets, with major Wall Street banks demanding collateral after the value of holdings sharply declined. 

There is fear of a repeat of the devastating 'Black Monday' (October 19, 1987) when the Dow fell 22.6%, the largest one-day percentage drop in history.

 

[kscarbel2]

“I struggle for why, for what the president’s game plan is.

Because if you wanted to make the market crash, I think you would go with this game plan.

I don’t like that game. I do not favor that. That’s a they know nothing game plan.

It should not be in our country’s interest to have the market crash.”

Jim Cramer

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[tjc transport]

why is it ok for other countries to place up to 60% tariffs on american exports, but is is bad for america to put 10-15% tariffs on foreign imports? 
screw those foreign countries that dont want our exports. 

it is time to think about america first, not america last like the demonrats have done for so long.

 

[mowerman]

well for one thing again the all mighty main street media is scaring the shit out of everyone insteada inspiring everyone and boosting thier spirits,,,,,and where the hell were they when they were closing tons of factories over here??????ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo thats right nobody cared     

[kscarbel2]

President Trump today threatened China with additional 50% tariffs if they do not withdraw their 34% retaliatory tariffs on the US. He says all negotiations will be terminated and the additional 50% levy will take effect on Wednesday.

“If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50 percent effective April 9^th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”

There is a "way" to successfully discuss matters with Peking. This is not that way.

[kscarbel2]

  On 4/5/2025 at 2:43 PM, tjc transport said:

why is it ok for other countries to place up to 60% tariffs on american exports, but is is bad for america to put 10-15% tariffs on foreign imports? 
screw those foreign countries that dont want our exports. 

it is time to think about america first, not america last like the demonrats have done for so long.

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60% tariffs are not okay. But I would first target the tariffs that actually and significantly affect the US.

I imagine that all Americans support reciprocal tariffs, but he has now without explanation superceded that plan with tariffs in excess of reciprocal.

Remember, some small countries use tariffs to protect what little industry that they have. And the US should have practiced such protectionism of our domestic truckmakers, rather than allow the DoJ to approve the sale of every major US truckmaker to foreign aggressors with the exception of Paccar, resulting in over 75% of commercial trucks on US roads being produced by foreign truckmakers which is NOT in the best interest of US national security.

[mowerman]

You know the floodgates have been wide open and way too long, and everybody has become mighty comfortable with the entire caper … and frankly, I feel our younger generation doesn’t give a flying hoot about bringing jobs back here and that respect the king is probably wasting his time anyway, but I gotta give him a hats off for the effort … bob

[kscarbel2]

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2024/ar-ceo-letters

[kscarbel2]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went so far as to fly to Florida last Sunday to encourage President Trump to focus his message on negotiating favorable trade deals, or risk the stock market cratering further.

In Florida, Bessent told the President that markets would remain in peril unless he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame with tariffs, winning deals with other countries.

Bessent’s view is, the markets will keep melting unless you shift. You’re not going to abandon the policy, but you have to talk about negotiating and what the endgame is.

The Sunday meeting was an opportunity to figure out the next steps after 50 countries reached out to open discussions on the U.S.'s new tariff regime. The purpose of Trump’s April 2 tariff rollout was to create “maximum leverage” over foreign governments.

Bessent is perhaps the most powerful voice urging Trump to telegraph to anxious Americans that there is an end in sight.

Bessent is also the first known adviser to try to urge the president to alter his rhetoric on trade, albeit privately and gently. And even as the Treasury secretary has confined his advice to messaging, it appears to be moving Trump to allow more room publicly for negotiations, including the possibility of cutting back on some of the aggressive international trade barriers he announced last week.

The Treasury secretary, who has been a public and vocal defender of the president’s new tariff regime, suggested that Trump put more emphasis on how the policy would result in a better deal for America and more jobs in the U.S.

The administration’s contradictory rhetoric has been a hallmark of the early days of the trade war. On Monday, Bessent announced the U.S. was opening negotiations with Japan over tariffs at the same time Peter Navarro published an op-ed in the Financial Times saying there would be “no negotiations”.

And even as the White House moves forward on negotiations with Japan, Trump is ramping up a trade war with China, threatening to impose 104% levies on Beijing, a move that on its own is likely to stoke significant market fear.

But Bessent’s advice appears to have encouraged Trump to tamp down his most absolutist statements and at least open the door for negotiations with some countries.

[kscarbel2]

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[kscarbel2]

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[kscarbel2]

China has hiked their retaliatory levies on U.S. imports to 84%, matching the administrations added 34% + 50% levies.

[kscarbel2]

"AOC is the reason there are directions on a shampoo bottle."

Senator John Kennedy

[kscarbel2]

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S. and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.

Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 countries have called representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non-Monetary Tariffs, and that these countries have not retaliated in any way against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day pause, and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.”

President Trump

* Sectoral tariffs, such as those on vehicles, still apply.

[kscarbel2]

“Yesterday’s pause doesn’t mean tariffs are no longer driving the economic narrative. Today’s cooler-than-expected inflation should be taken as old news, with tariffs expected to send inflation rocketing higher in the next couple of months. The Fed remains in a tough spot, caught between a trade war causing tight financial conditions and weight on the economy as inflation takes off.”

Ellen Zentner – Morgan Stanley’s chief economic strategist

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“I take no solace in the president’s announcement to delay the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. I still see a recession as a likely outcome.”

Mark Zandi - Moody’s chief economist