YTD Commercial Truck Registrations Fall 4.2%

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Heavy Duty Trucking  /  November 2, 2016

The number of commercial vehicles in GVW Classes 4-8 registered this year through August fell 4.2%, mostly due to a steep decline in Class 8 over-the-road trucks, IHS has reported.

Registrations of Class 8 vehicles are 17.1% lower than a year ago, while registrations of Class 7 vocational trucks are down only 0.6%.

Freightliner leads the market for Classes 4-8 with 27% of registrations from January to August.

IHS has also analyzed light-duty registrations and found that Class 1 — a segment that would include compact vans and mid-size pickups — has the lowest volume of vehicles registered to a business with a 24% share. Almost 96% of vehicles in Classes 7 to 8 are registered to a business.

"Traditionally, the larger trucks have a single purpose — for work applications — versus the smaller trucks, which are used for both personal and business needs," said HIS analysts Gary Meteer. "As we work our way up the weight [GVW] scale, the business use gets larger."

New vehicle registrations among fleets operating more than 500 vehicles have declined, resulting in the decline of tractor-trailer trucks versus the same period in 2015.

"These large fleets have been in a replacement cycle for the past five years, and large fleets have accounted for more than 50% of GVW 8 new registrations during this period," Meteer said. "Some of this year’s slowing may be the result of uncertainty in the demand for goods with the general slowing of the economic growth in the most recent quarters."

When comparing new registrations against vehicles in operation, businesses with more than 500 vehicles have 43% share of new registrations, while only representing 22% of vehicles in operation. Class 6 vehicles are leading new registrations with a 54% share, while Classes 7 and 8 have the highest share (24%) of vehicles in operation.

Diesel-powered engines continue to dominate newly registered commercial vehicles. Overall diesel share is influenced by the availability of diesel-powered engines within each GVW range. The restricted availability of diesel engines in GVW 4 vehicles has pulled the overall diesel engine share down. Cummins leads the industry in share of new diesel registrations with 38.4% of the market.

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Class 8 registrations declined during the first 8 months of 2016

Fleet Owner  /  November 2, 2016

Heavy-duty Class 8 registrations down 17.1% from January through August this year

New registrations of Class 4 through 8 vehicles dropped 4.2% overall from January through August this year, with registrations of Class 8 models dropping 17.1% and Class 7 vehicles down 0.6%, according to data tracked by research company IHS.

Additionally, new vehicle registrations by those fleets operating more than 500 vehicles have declined, resulting in the decline of Class 8 tractors versus the same period in 2015.

“These large fleets have been in a replacement cycle for the past five years, and large fleets have accounted for more than 50% of [Class] 8 new registrations during this period,” said HIS analyst Gary Meteer, pointing out that. Freightliner leads the market for Class 4-8 vehicles with 27% of registrations during the January to August timeframe.

“Some of this year’s slowing may be the result of uncertainty in the demand for goods with the general slowing of the economic growth in the most recent quarters,” he added.

Based on a truck market analysis in June, there are 9.4 million commercial vehicles (Class 4-8) in operation on U.S. roads.

When comparing new registrations against vehicles in operation, fleets operating more than 500 heavy vehicles show a 43% share of new registrations through August, while only representing 22% of vehicles in operation.

By contrast, all other gross vehicle weight [GVW] classes experienced gains over the same timeframe last year, with recent analysis from IHS Markit indicating that the lowest volumes of vehicles registered to a business are to those in the Class 1, with just 24% share registered to a business, while nearly 96% of Class 7-8 commercial vehicles are registered to a business.

“Traditionally, the larger trucks have a single purpose – for work applications – versus the smaller trucks, which are used for both personal and business needs,” Meteer emphasized. “As we work our way up the weight (GVW) scale, the business use gets larger.” 

While commercial vehicle new registrations are still dominated by diesel-powered engines, overall diesel share is influenced by the availability of diesel-powered engines within each GVW class.

Thus the restricted availability of diesel engines in Class 4 vehicles has pulled the overall share diesel engines account for in Class 4-8 vehicles down. When looking at engine OEMs, Cummins leads the industry in share of new diesel registrations, with 38.4% of the market.

Other details of the commercial vehicle analysis include:

• The Central and South regions of the U.S. account for 30% and 28% of the vehicles in operation respectively.

• Nationally, the largest vehicle population is heavy tractors at 34% of the vehicle population followed by straight trucks. Overall, Class 8 trucks account for 45% of the vehicle population nationally.

• The “sweet spot” for full commercial vehicle overhaul is about five to six years, and as a result, data indicates that there are less than 200,000 Class 4-8 2010 model year vehicles in operation and less than about 100,000 units, on average, of 2008-2011 model year Class 8 units in the vehicle population.

• Nationally, the average age of commercial vehicles (Class 4-8) on the road is 14 years, which is the highest it has been since IHS began tracking this metric.

• Some of the oldest vehicles on the road are Class 6 straight trucks and all buses. 

• In Canada during the first eight months of 2016, new commercial vehicle registrations (Class 4-8) were down 8.2% from the same timeframe last year, with the largest declines in Class 8 trucks, down more than 21%.

• Commercial vehicle growth segments in Canada include Class 3 at 1.7%; Class 4 at 12.5%, and Class 7 with nearly 6% growth through August.