EV truck prediction

[ZDB]

Futurist’s Forecast: ‘Disruptive’ Decade Includes Massive Shift To EV Trucks

Date: May 24, 2018

CCJ Magazine

By 2030 or earlier, the advantages of electric vehicles will virtually force fleets to switch from diesel to electric power, predicted futurist Tony Siba, author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation.”

Siba spoke Wednesday at Transparency18.

The two-day conference in Atlanta was produced by FreightWaves, a data analytics company, in partnership with the Blockchain in Transport Alliance (BITa) and Georgia Tech.

“The 2020s will be the most disruptive decade in history,” Siba said.

He cited historical examples of technological transition, such as horse-and-buggy to automobiles, and early cell phones to smartphones, that were truly disruptive in that they virtually killed an older technology.

Siba said that once an emerging trend reaches its tipping point, change is dramatically fast, running most of its course in only 10 to 20 years. “Anyone who tells you disruption in transportation cannot happen in 10 years is not looking at the data.”

Electric vehicles (EVs) are close to that point of rapid adoption, he said. “By 2025, most [new] vehicles will be electric.” Eventually, truck fleets are “going to have to go EV or go bankrupt,” he said.

EVs are 10 times cheaper to fuel than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, he said. EVs have 20 moving parts versus 2,000 in ICE vehicles. The drop in battery costs and the increase of investments in battery mega-factories have been huge in recent years.

Futurist Institute Chairman Jason Schenker presented attendees with a more pessimistic view of battery power for EVs. Oil isn’t rare yet, he said, “but the things that go into electric vehicle batteries are probably quite rare,” he said. “There’s not enough out there to change things as much as people think.”

What he referred to as Tesla’s suspension of its Class 8 tractor, the Semi (recent speculation unconfirmed by Tesla) is attributable to the battery costs, Schenker said. The demand even for small smartphone batteries has prompted Apple to secure mine rights for cobalt, which its batteries require.

Two other major automotive market shifts are converging with the EV development, Siba said. One is the transition to autonomous vehicles, which, like the EV trend, is about to accelerate. 

Google’s Waymo division operates a fleet of cars in Phoenix operating at Level 4 autonomy, just below total autonomy, he said. “Waymo says by end of this year, they’ll blanket Phoenix with autonomous, on-demand vehicles.”

Also, many drivers are forsaking car ownership in favor of using ride-sharing services such as Uber and Lyft. “Last year, 10 percent of Americans who traded in their car did not buy a new one,” he said.

“It’s pretty much going to be over by 2030” for the forces converging to revolutionize vehicular markets, Siba said. “This is not an energy transition. This is a technology disruption.”

Source: HDMA

[h67st]

How much weight in batteries would you have to have to run 500 miles in an 80,000 lb. truck, running 70 mph and up and down mountains? I can't see that working.

[tjc transport]

probably about 95,000 lbs worth of batteries

 

[Maxidyne]

You're talking at least a megawatt hour of capacity, so the weight would easily be several tons. More stifling would be the cost of all those batteries- A megawatt hour is about ten times the capacity of the biggest Tesla car battery, that car sells for over $100k, and most of the cars cost is the battery...

[RoadwayR]

First I have heard that Tesla is dropping their 'Semi'.  No surprise, but a lot of information that I have seen points to energy supply and infrastructure as the biggest hurdles to widespread EV truck implementation.  This is on top of what Maxidyne has pointed out.

EV cars, yes no question.  Commercial trucks, big question.

  

[Red Horse]

This sounds like a rumor that some guy got from his brother -in law who has a cousin that cleans the offices at Tesla!  The only financial blast I got on my Iphone today as far as Tesla goes is the stock went up because the genius writers at Consumer Reports gave them good marks because they did an electronic tweak and improved the Model 3 braking distance.

[Jamaican Bulldog]

The same issues that affect EV trucks will happen to EV trucks and in some ways more far reaching. Yes the electric motor tech is reliable. We were told in car business that EV would take over but here are some inconvenient truths.

It relies heavily on govt subsidies, if everything becomes electric, there is not enough money to go around to make it viable. Even then customers are not rushing for them and most car makers don't make profits selling them. Those that do normally do so via carbon credits they sell to other auto makers who have to meet Federal  EPA Requirements so they can sell cars that do make a profit. The first rule of economics is scarcity, and the first rule of politics is to ignore the first rule of economics.

The metals for batteries are not just rare but often come from very controversial or volatile places in the world such as China and parts of Africa. Getting those batteries from he earth also often leaves a nasty scar on the earth.

If everyone plugs in, can the grid handle it?

Renewables don't provide a consistent reliable source for electricity, so traditional means such as coal, oil and gas have to supplement it. When Germany tried to go away from traditional energy source electricity price went up by 300%, now they have to be using more coal to  help generate electricity.

While it is fashionable to bash 'big oil', it is easy to not notice 'big E', the environment lobbyists who promise politicians big donations to push policies that subsidizes electric cars while imposing heavy regulations on vehicles that use traditional engines. Politicians will more and more determine what you drive and try to reduce the influence of the free market in making that decision.

I think for big trucks at least in the near future, not only will the innovation of traditional engines improve but also more diesel hybrids may be more viable than a full EV.

 

 

 

[j hancock]

As discussed before,  what of the fuel tax paid at the pump?  How will an appropriate road tax be determined for EV?  Fair and equitable?

I am confident with lobbyist and the government, that the consumer will not be a priority with increased infrastructure quality.

Also, what are the long term cost (financial and safety) for recycling failed or damaged battery packs?

What are the cost to replace a battery pack when the vehicle is out of warranty?

 

I am intrigued by the torque capabilities of electric motors in transportation vehicles.  Guess that is why I like trains.