Diesel to Remain Dominant Fuel Type Through 2040

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Heavy Duty Trucking (HDT)  /  September 18, 2018

Commercial vehicles are expected to run on diesel fuel through 2040 due to increases in fuel economy, according to new research from IHS Markit.

In 22 years, 66% of new medium and heavy commercial vehicles sold in the U.S. will be fueled by diesel, compared to 80% today. Range and load capacity requirements from long-haul, on-highway trucking will keep diesel relevant in the short- and long-term, while other vehicle types will grow in popularity as technology continues to advance, according to the forecast.

The findings came in Reinventing the Truck, a new multi-client research initiative that analyzes the world’s largest trucking markets.

“Understanding the future course of commercial trucking is so important because its impacts will reverberate far beyond just the trucking industry and through a whole host of industries,” said Daniel Evans, vice president of the IHS Markit downstream practice and co-author of the study.  “Trucking accounts for half of diesel demand globally, or one-sixth of oil demand, making the future of trucking critically important for the oil industry. A wholistic, system-wide view is needed to see the full picture of this new reality of transportation.”

The report predicts a 15% compound annual growth rate for battery electric vehicles in the U.S. through 2040, as acquisition rates increase for medium-duty trucks. The initial cost disadvantage of BEVs will require adoption from larger truck fleets first, before they can be implemented smaller fleet owners and operators.

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Cummins shows at IAA why diesel will remain 'primary source of power'

Neil Abt, Fleet Owner  /  September 25, 2018

HANOVER, Germany. Cummins Inc. displayed various emissions reductions technologies at the IAA Commercial Vehicles show aimed making diesel engines more efficient. 

“With our technical advancements, we see diesel remaining as the primary source of power in the commercial vehicle sector for the foreseeable future,” said Tim Proctor, executive director of product management and market innovation.

The Indiana-based company is also heavily invested in electric technologies. However, at IAA one of its showpieces was a concept emissions control system that could one day be used to meet a potential Euro VII emissions regulation, anticipated in the coming years. 

“This innovative system allows further reduction in NOx and PM emissions, while simultaneously improving fuel efficiency,” said Tim Proctor, executive director of product management and market innovation.

Proctor added in a statement that other technologies under development to reduce friction and parasitic losses “will also continue to make the diesel engine even more productive and energy efficient.”

Separately, Eaton Cummins Automated Transmission Technologies showed the Endurant 12-speed automated transmission for the first time at IAA. It was launched in North American in the fourth quarter of 2017 and company officials said sales have been outpacing expected demand. 

Endurant is up to 105 lbs. lighter than competitive automated manual transmissions (AMTs).